Odds this hand after flop

Replay Poker Hand Review
1

Speaking about odds after flop

In my opinion I have two projects after flop:flush and straight

Probability of flush: 49odds=36% (rule of “x4” in flop)
Probability of straight: 4 4odds(all the eights) =16%

Combined probability:
So in the flop my odds should be: 4 * (9+3)= 48% ¿?
9 for the flush
3 for the straight (eight of clubs in counted in the 9odds for colour)

However I checked this hand in a poker calculator and my odds are about 35%

Where is my mistake?

Thanks in advance and sorry for my english

2

The approximation that you used is exactly that - an approximation - and it is used for heads up play - you against just one other player.

According to Equilab:
47.88% equity against QcJd
48.28% equity against Kd2h
62.22% equity against As6h

With all 3 players in the hand, your equity drops to 41.95% as it should. I’m surprised that you even had that much equity in a 4 way pot.

Hope this helps,

Regards,
TA

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3

You are calculating the chances of making a straight or flush. The odds calculators are calculating the chance that you will win the hand, On the flop, 2 players had pairs, and could have made boats or quads by the river. The QJ hand could have gone runner runner to a better flush or made a better straight.

In other words, you could have made your straight or flush and still lost, so the odds of you making your hand are not the same as the odds of you winning the hand.

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4

Thank you very much both of you, very interesting ^^

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5

from Pokerlistings.com. Remember, the odds for YOU change with the number of players at the table! Check out the site. Personally, I rarely stay in the hand for a flush with six or more people at the table unless my two cards can stand alone. The more people that muck in that same six person table, the more the value of the two cards I have to stand on their own comes into play. That’s just my analysis.

Odds for Flushes in Texas Hold’em

Scenario Probability Odds
If you have suited cards, you flop a flush 0.8418% 1:118
If two players have suited cards, both flop a flush 0.4857% 1:205
If three players have suited cards, all three flop a flush 0.2306% 1:433
Heads-Up, both players are dealt suited cards and flop a flush 0.0051% 1:19,490
Two players at a 6-max-table are dealt suited cards and both flop a flush 0.0770% 1:1,298
Two players at a full ring table are dealt suited cards and both flop a flush 0.1847% 1:540
Three players at a 6-max-table are dealt suited cards and all three flop a flush 0.0012% 1:85,758
Three players at a full ring table are dealt suited cards and all three flop a flush 0.0035% 1:28,585