I have been checking how many hands I have which would actually win in NL hold em when all cards are on the table . Currently I am averaging (with an average of 8 players at the table) less than 10% of winning hands . Of these half are on low off suit cards like 27 or 49 which are not worth putting an ante on . Therefore my odds on hands which would be worth posting a call or raise are at about 1 in 22 (4.5%) hands which means I am getting about a third of winning hands compared to other people at the table . This compares poorly with other sites where I have calculated I get between 8% and 14% winning hands .
Also fairing poorly on Replay poker is high pairs JJ - AA where my winning percentage (typically posting 3BB on these) is 25% ( 2 wins in 8 ) . Other sites I have between 40% and 75%
The “experts” will tell you to ride out your unlucky streak by narrowing your range and folding for days.
Forget that.
When you are card dead make large bets. I have found that after I do this a few times I start filling in good hands. Sacrifice a few pretend chips now and win a bunch of pretend chips later.
For whatever reason, poker plays different here.
It’s called variance, you are not looking at a large enough sample from either of the sites you play on to make an accurate judgement.
throw out all poker reasoning with replay poker
With 8 players at the table, in the long run you should win one in eight hands at the river, or 12 1/2%. However, what is really most important is how many hands you have that are ahead at the flop, because you can make sure that opponents have the wrong odds to play draws. Hands like JJ have a good chance of being ahead at the flop if heads up. That is why you usually need to put in a good raise preflop, so that you will not be called by unpaired undercards. On the turn and river JJ is a depreciating asset as it becomes more vulnerable to straights, flushes and overcards. JJ can be a deadly hand in tournaments, because if you come up against a higher pocket pair, it will be difficult to get away from the hand without heavy losses.
A few years ago, I sent Bovada some money and began playing penny ante there. I noticed one player won 100% of the hands, so I started counting how many hands I would have won if I’d gone to showdowns. I figured that my BS in science incl a course in statistics would help me understand it better. Hah! Turns out I didn’t need no stinking statistics on Bovada. I counted only those hands for which I KNEW whether I would have won. After 100 KNOWS, I had won zero hands and one player at each table I played won 100% of all hands. I do better at RP than other play-money sites, as there are more tables and I get to choose which table (& players) I play with. Nonetheless, I always play as though there is a shill at the table. I don’t really think there are shills at RP, but F&L players are just too lucky for my taste. Whatever, you get play money for nothing and the chips are free.
That ain’t workin’, that’s the way you do it
Money for nothin’ and your chips for free