This hand illustrates why it’s necessary to fast-play strong hands in poker, whether Texas Hold 'Em, Omaha Hi-Lo, or some other variant.
The table is very short-stacked, with most of the table under 10BB, and everyone below 25BB. With the button sitting on a pair of aces, and AK both of clubs, this is a clear raise. If @jdwink1952 opens to ~2.5BB in that spot, with a plan to call any jam, he’ll be in position against the other two players postflop, and would probably have a decent chance of knocking at least one of them out before the hand begins.
I don’t hate hase72’s decision to complete here, but in those shoes I’m not loving the spot. He’ll be out of position postflop, can’t make a flush, and unless he catches a king or QJ on the flop, it’ll be tough to continue.
His decision to lead out on the flop with a minbet, though, I very much dislike. Merely completing preflop showed a lot of weakness. If I’m in that spot, I want one of the two players behind me to open so that I can come over the top with the second highest possible hand (at the moment). There are only backdoor flush draws - which is great, since I can’t make a flush myself - and there are only two cards to a low. With KK and no preflop raisers, I’m not expecting someone else to be holding AA, so I’m very happy with my cards right now. If he decides to lead out, he needs to use a much larger size. You’re not going to scare off any lows, or anyone holding TJQ or 234 with backdoor flush draws, with a quarter-pot bet. On the other hand, you could get way more value from someone holding A5 or AK that made two pair, or 55 that made bottom set. Should you decide to lead out, I’d target something in the vicinity of a full-pot bet.
Once the flop appears, it’s going to be hard to kick @TelegramSam out of the pot. Out of the 45 cards in the deck he hasn’t seen, there are 15 cards in the deck that give him the nut low - any 4, 7, or 8, and the remaining three sixes. Another 6 cards (the remaining twos and threes) will give him the second nut low. With nearly half the deck likely giving him half the pot, there’s little he shouldn’t be calling. Facing a minbet, I might even decide to jam with my low, wheel, and backdoor flush draws, putting maximum pressure on the small blind and anyone with draws themselves.
With @jdwink1952’s hand on the flop, facing a bet and a call, he needs to raise, and raise big. At the moment, he’s got the nuts. However, any 2, 3, 4, T, J, or Q will bring a potential straight to the board, and he blocks none of those, which could bring a very awkward decision facing bets on later streets. Just as @TelegramSam has a lot of cards he can hit, @jdwink1952 has a lot of cards he has to avoid on turns and rivers. Flush out those draws with a pot-sized bet. That would force @TelegramSam to make a call for his tournament life, and if @hase72 calls, you’re setting up for a turn jam if the board pairs or brings a 6-9.
J
is an interesting turn. QT is now the nuts, and could conceivably have called a very small flop bet. There’s now a diamond flush draw out there, which none of the three players still in the hand can hit. Also, there’s still no available low. I’m liking hase72’s and @TelegramSam’s check here.
I think jdwink1952 is right to bet here on the turn. With two checks in front of him, it’s less likely that someone made broadway, and even if they did he’s still got outs if the board pairs. There are a lot of bad rivers for him - anything that would bring a low could cut the potential pot in half, a diamond that doesn’t pair the board could give one of his opponents a flush which will beat his set, a queen would give someone holding AT, KT, or JT a straight, a ten would give a straight to someone holding AQ, KQ, or QJ… The only “safe” rivers pair the board (9 cards), or the three non-diamond 9’s. That’s less than a quarter of the deck. Once again, he should be betting pretty big in order to flush out his opponents’ draws. A minbet accomplishes next to nothing, providing the bare minimum of value from weaker hands, and not denying enough equity to get opponents to fold off their draws.
On the river, I like hase72’s check, and @TelegramSam’s all-in. The latter has the nut low and second-nut high, so a scoop is definitely possible. The way the action has played out, his jam is only about half pot, and so calls from weaker hands are likely.
At this point, jdwink1952 is in a really crappy spot. His pre-turn passivity and minuscule turn bet have let a lot of draws (wheel, broadway, and low) get there. I think I call, hoping that @TelegramSam is betting with a 26 or 36 low, but I’m not happy about it.
hase72 should probably fold here. He has no shot at a low. There are a lot of highs that now have him beat - a slowplayed set of aces, broadway, and a wheel - and given both jdwink1952’s turn bet and @TelegramSam’s river bet, at least one of his opponents probably has his set of cowboys kicked. That would have saved him a healthy chunk of his remaining stack, and left him with the second highest amount of chips at the table. Instead, he’s stuck with just over 10BB, behind two players - one to his immediate left, the other on his immediate right. Not a great place to be in a tournament.
The moral of this story: When you have a super-strong hand like top set, and there are a lot of turns/rivers that may bring straights and rivers, you need to bet big and deny equity from draws. Sure, you may drive off value that you could capture on later streets should those draws brick off. However, you also risk losing a big pot when your opponents’ draws come in.