I gave the site a try after seeing this post the other day. I have played ~9 MTT’s in 3 days, so far 3 cashes, unfortunately the cashes were in the smaller ones. I have never played online for ~$?
@lihiue 2352bb!! I hope this is 10/20
I wish.
The games here play crazy and deep - several times I’ve had over 1000bb, but I don’t remember that ever happening on Replay - not at the higher stakes anyway. You lose huge posts to some ridiculous hands quite often too, so the swings are pretty extreme. Still, getting second in a 600+ player field is way impressive, congrats!
Phhhhftttttt. Logon any midweek morning super early US eastern time. No math needed. It is exactly as always. Ruse, scam, grift THE END.
The fact you think playing one session is going to tell me anything, tells me everything I need to know about your understanding of statistics and probability.
I know you’re probably wrong. Statistically speaking. 
I think the MTT’s play like the 2.5k MTT’s on replay to be honest. Just much deeper in terms of player pool. I have played a decent amount of micro stakes ring and it feels an awful lot like 2k/4k on replay, very winnable.
Absolutely unreal level of (low) skill on the site <3 go feast!
I just got to 10K hands played. I’ve won 3252 big blinds, so beating the game at around 32bb/100. 10K hands is still a very small sample, but I think I can honestly say I’ve not been running that well, it’s just a really soft field, especially if you do a little bit of table selection.
It’s not all sunshine and rainbows though. I don’t know if anyone has been following Doug Polk’s challenge on the site, but I actually think his review is actually fairly generous: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRmEViEobZQ
There are embarrassing issues he doesn’t mention, and almost everything that annoys people about Replay is magnified here - players routinely taking their entire timebank to fold preflop, your premiums always losing because those hands go 7 ways to a flop, etc. Also, people play deep and wild, so the swings can be pretty big.
The ring games are profitable, but incredibly frustrating. The few freerolls I played seemed like they had a pretty good structure and would probably be enjoyable if tournaments are your thing though, and there’s some pretty big freefolls on for the next couple of Sundays.
The UI is pretty crappy too, kinda bare bones and not very “with it.” But you can’t turn your nose up at this game quality for real money!
I had a nice run today in a 5.5 and wanted to run a spot by you. I had chip lead and been top10 the entire time after getting in the money. I had ~50bb and covered the table in 8thplace/~60 at the time. MP1 jams for 9bb, Button jams for 8bb and SB jams for 22bb. I have 88 in the BB and am last to act, there are ~60 players left. I thought a call would be ok because all I have to really beat is the SB but after going deep into my time bank I figured there would be better spots and folded, long story short my hand would have held and I would have had a large chip lead at the time. Was that an easy fold and I am blinded by the results or should it have been a call? @Younguru @lihiue or anyone else with thoughts 
Trivial fold for me, though I could be wrong.
My thinking:
-it is hard for us to have an equity advantage
-there are plenty of better spots to find
-assuming we lose, 28bb is a much dicier stack to navigate than 50bb; now when the blinds go up we are already almost in shove/fold territory preflop
-SB should be very strong when shoving here over 2 short stacks, even without ICM pressure as the bubble has already burst
Congrats on a deep run and a nice cash $$$
Excellent observation that you really don’t care about losing 9bb to the other two, so treat it like heads-up wit the SB. However, this might be a better fold than you thought since the SB on 22bb IS VERY afraid of losing 9bb (approx 40% of his stack) in a 3-way showdown, which means that his range here is even tighter - or at least it should be.
hrmmm, idk, at the time I thought they were just trying to isolate with an Ace, possibly a weak Ace. I don’t think really strong hands push here, I am last to act and they should want me to come in with a strong hand. In the end they did have a weak Ace, still not sure if I made the correct play however, I know I made the safe play 
This is the biggest lead I have managed to have in a MTT. This was at the rebuy break, right before the add-on. I made a couple poor decisions after this screen shot, it was still a good cash though 
plenty of opportunity on this site.
If Villain wants isolation (which he has already lost, see below) he does NOT want you to join in.
My analysis was basically the same as @younguru’s.
Let’s strip it down to pre-flop basics. Anyone betting strong from an early position has a tight range (or should have a tight range if they know what they’re doing). Now, if we KNOW that VIllain is a loose player and will bet wide from early, maybe it’s different, but we should always take care when someone on the blinds bets large pre.
But this is also almost an ICM situation. In fact it is totally ICM for the two short-short stacks. Yes short stacks will widen because they have to, but SB on 22bb does not have to widen yet. He can stay tight here. He SHOULD stay tight here. So if he risks 1/3rd of his chips (at the final table!) by jamming over TWO short stack all-ins, he better be damn sure that he’s ahead of BOTH. A-rag is NOT the hand he wants to do this with.
If he is heads-up, different story. You mention isolation. He can’t isolate here. He’s already 3-handed. Your 50bb is not afraid of losing to 9bb here but his 22bb IS! - or damn well should be. 3-handed is double the chance of getting sucked out. Any two cards have 15% chance of cracking AA heads-up. Now replace AA with A-rag (a significantly weaker hand) and double the chance of the suckout with two villains. What are the chances of losing here? 30% 40% 45%? Higher? SB is TOTALLY playing with fire here.
SB SHOULD have prime here (to make sure that he beats BOTH stacks) and folding 88 to prime to save half our stack (and chip lead at final table) is a smart move. As it turned out, SB was loose, but do you want to take the chance and assume that he doesn’t know his math? Or even if he doesn’t but happens to have prime anyway?
If you played that spot 10 times, you probably lose to SB at least 5 times? So that was a smart fold.
Now, if the short stacks had stayed out and SB jams you, that’s a steal attempt and he should be wider so the amount of prime he has there is a lower %. His range would have all the A-rag (and probably K-rag too) in it and very callable with pocket pair. You would have isolation as well. That would be a much better spot to call.
You have to be right that they will shove weak Ax here and that they won’t jam with too many pairs better than yours. I don’t think jamming weak Ax is good, so I’d be worried that anyone who did that is just jamming all their pairs as well.
It can’t be far off a 50/50 spot either way, but I think 88 is probably just a bit too weak. I could see 99 being a call though.
I have found that playing M.M.T. tournament’s… w/ about 100 players… you dont want to plaay many hands till after the 1st hour break… their are a lot of players who will play fast and loose out of the gate… and will win w. wild garbage hands… but after the hour break… most of those players will be knocked out… and you will have over 1/2 of your chips to get down to business… and will make good tournament points… if your playing for the leaderboards…
Just want to talk about shove ranges.
When out stack gets small enough to start playing shove/fold pre, there are three times when we shove. The first two are easy.
1 ~ If we have a prime hand. We shove this in from any seat at the table.
2 ~ If we have very short stack, say 5bb or lower, we shove pretty much anything. We’re basically playing our suckout value.
The third situation is what separates good ICM players from meh ones.
3 ~ If we have a decent hand (good but less than prime) we shove if the table is weak and fold if the table is strong or even semi-strong.
This is where the card players judge their cards as good enough and dismiss all of the other factors. So how do we know if the table is weak or strong? By the betting. If there are one or two limpers and a bunch of folds, the table is weak. If someone opens, the table is strong. If someone opens and gets called the table is very strong. If there are 3 or 4 or 5 limpers, the table is semi-strong and we fold.
Of course this means that we cannot judge the table strength unless we see the action first. Which also means that we only consider jamming our decent hands from the BLINDS! ; ) Our prime hands shove from any position but our decent hands only from the blinds when the table is weak.
Why? Because our prime hands are for doubling up. QQ? We want calls! But our decent hands, we are STEALING! A3s, 44, etc, we want FOLDS - or a call from a limper (because a limper has a wider range that our decent hand can compete with).
Consider the hand above where the SB jammed A-rag over two short-stack all-ins. We see our position, the SB. This is a good position to jam from because we see all of the action (except the BB, so the 2nd best seat to jam from). We have a decent hand. A-rag wins many hands all-in pre when no one hits the board. However, it’s not prime because it has a weak kicker. So if the table is weak we will shove it in the BB’s face.
But what happened here? MP shoved 9bb. Now, even 100bb deep 9bb is a VERY large pre-flop opening. So MP is strong. In fact, since we know that the blinds are the best shoving positions, MP has a tighter shove range. He has to be more certain to beat all the hands calling behind, he has no info on. We get the info from the blinds, we see the betting. MP doesn’t, so he needs the stronger hand. This is NOT GOOD for our A-rag. Furthermore, the BT calls all-in with 8bb. The BT is confident that he can survive showdown against a strong MP!! The table here is VERY VERY STRONG! Our A-rag on SB should gth outta here!
See?
Now if he shift to the BB on 88 here. We must assume that the SB is super super extra strong to jam over a very very strong table. That’s why I say that the BB with 88 is a good fold.
The best option for the small blind is to just call their premium hands in this spot. With only 8-9bb left, neither MP or BTN are necessarily that strong either. Pretty sure SB can be shoving 66+ and AJo+, probably wider.
I think it’s actually quite likely 88 is ahead here, and it’s also reasonable to assume the the other 3 players are blocking each others outs to some extent. There’s enough potential upside here to justify a call IMHO, even though my first instinct was 100% fold too, and I still think that’s probably the best option.
@napkin_holder some of your analysis here is incorrect FTR
I know people love using this as an excuse for what’s basically just nitty play, but I really think @Pos111 has too big an edge on the field to be calling here with less than at least TT. It’s just not worth the spike in volatility IMO. There will be plenty of postflop spots to exploit; we still have lots of time relative to our stack.
