Nice bounce back numbers!
1 Like
Here’s where I think differently and believe to have an edge on Replay.
Younguru posted above his club flush hand.
He played multiple hands beforehand that weren’t able to catch that final club.
So, in my mind long before, I would have taken note early on that there was a trend there.
Insta-folding and those hands finding the muck.
These trends can be anything noticed at the poker table.
Someone with a bad poker face giving out a flash of information.
If it’s consistent and trending, go with it.
With respect, I think you’re way off with that post.
Younguru knew what was coming since he noticed how I was “trending” in the past on this topic.
He should’ve noticed his low percentage win rate waiting on that club.
I’m glad he finally caught one, but IMO, he wasn’t on the right side of that trend.
Sure, you can say there’s no trends in poker and believe it as 100% fact.
Awareness is crucial and ignorance will cost you a lot at the poker table.
Work on your awareness and add another tool into your toolbox.
You’re missing a lot and a good exercise is take your eyes away from this screen
and look to your left and then to your right.
See what you didn’t notice just a second before now?
Ask yourself, " How long have I been trending this way and did others notice this
and have been taking advantage all along?"
So, there’s a deep underlying current or reasoning regarding trends.
Have I convinced you?
Your definition of trend is inaccurate.
A bad poker face is not a trend in any way. It is simply a tell.
A trend is something that changes the odds consistently over a period of time. The odds in any poker spot DO NOT change, therefore there are no trends in poker. The odds of getting a club on the river to complete a flush are 25% (or slightly under since an extra club or two are already in play) and these odds never ever EVER change no matter how many times flushes have completed or not completed in the recent past or in history ever. It’s simple statistical math.
Play the odds and calculate your bet according to pot, stacks and opponent’s tendencies. There are no trends here.
1 Like
My math isn’t very accurate.
I’m thinking approximately 35% to your 25% to complete a flush.
I wonder who is closer?
We need a third opinion.
I understand your point of view drawing to a flush has a set probability.
Short term, that percentage can easily sway in one direction.
If you notice this and play accordingly, call it a trend or variance, you can
have an edge.
You can say there are no trends here, but there’s variance at play.
Awareness of this sway has a place in your toolbox.
Have I swayed or convinced you yet?
Agree, your math is not accurate. What are the chances that the next card off the stub in any situation is a club? 1 in 4 or 25%. Of course if we are hoping for a club to complete a flush on the river, then a few extra clubs are already in play so that may reduce the percentage (less clubs still in the stub since we have 2 in our hand and 2 on the board), so our chances to complete the flush here are somewhere around 20%. That is the variance, 20/80 every time. This does not ever change.
Your 35% comes from a flush draw on the flop. Yes, the chances of completing the flush with TWO cards still to come is 35%.
Mathematically incorrect. You speak of variance but variance is simply the randomness of the shuffle of the deck. It is random. Random cannot be predicted (unless there is a flaw in the shuffle or if there is cheating). No matter how many times that flush has hit or whiffed previously, the chance to hit that river card is still about 20%. The cards have no awareness of previous shuffles/deals. The percentages do not change. The variance does not change. There is no edge to be found here except to exploit a player like yourself who actually believes that the odds are in his favor when they are not or aren’t in his favor when they are. ; )
If you flip a coin the chances of hitting heads is 50%.
If you flip that coin ten times and get 10 heads in a row, the percentage that the 11th flip will be heads is STILL 50%. It never changes. A properly shuffled deck of cards works exactly the same.
There are no trends in variance. Ever. This is simple statistical math - the physical law of the universe. I’d advise that you not bet against the fundamentals of the universe.
1 Like
I did get past you recently at a Nordic Warriors final table.
Now, I’m left wondering how the heck I did it!
I’ll be looking forward to competing against you again at the tables.
It was a pleasure reading your quality posts and "betting against the fundamentals
of the universe."
BTW, you did put a smile on my face and for that I would like to sincerely thank you!
How about these apples, I am no big stakes gambler, but I do like to take a jab at them, I think this is my biggest pot in the two years I have been here.
Let me know what you think happen there, and how my fur hat looked.
Michael,
Guessing he had three kings.
Christmas came early this year.
I have notes on every player at that table except Wald.
About a year ago, I was having your same experience but about half the amount.
Hand #1065726590 · Replay Poker (casino.org)
A very nice win there for you.
Congrats!
Close he had a set of 9s and two pair, he must have put me on two pair or a low to call that much,
1 Like
My four biggest pots are in the last 4 days, what now? go back to my cave?
| # | Hand | Pot Size | Winners | Played | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Three of a Kind, Aces | 53,622,548 Chips | Rain | about 19 hours ago | ReplaySave |
| 2 | Three of a Kind, Twos | 32,309,546 Chips | Rain | 4 days ago | ReplaySave |
| 3 | Full House, Tens full of Aces | 29,054,752 Chips | Rain | 4 days ago | ReplaySave |
| 4 | Full House, Aces full of Queens | 29,052,722 Chips | Rain | about 21 hours ago | ReplaySave |
2 Likes
Michael,
Continue the good run!
I’d protect 110 million and risk the rest.
Seems like the wind is at your back!
(To be in a good situation in which you can succeed.)
Now there’s an uptrend!
Remember to make a left turn toward that pot of gold!
2 Likes
Still nowhere near accustomed to these swings. In the past, losing 50M in a short span meant something was very wrong and I should pause and reassess. Now it’s just another day at the office.
@_Rain you are evolving! Soon you will have big sharp teeth coming out of your big sharp teeth!
1 Like
Toughest Ring opponents so far:
DARLINGGIRL
@MansoorH
DeWeirdo
_worldpeace _
Most Likely to Overplay Top Pair:
perojo3333
Highly Effective Plays so far:
-range cbet 1/3 pot (opponents are overfolding)
-check-raise a cbet from the Pre-Flop Raiser, on a disconnected flop (as a bluff)
-check-raise a cbet from the PFR, on a wet, draw-heavy flop (for value)
Ineffective Plays so far:
-check back with strong hands on wet board (missed value outweighs benefits of trapping)
-1/2 to 3/4 pot sizing on river (as a bluff - not enough fold equity)
-overbet sizing on river (for value - opponents are overfolding too much)
and not 30 seconds ago, one of my best played hands this month
not the biggest pot, but another nice line for max value
I think bb’s range is super wide on the flop after his c-bet, with almost every moderately connected or suited hand, but tightens dramatically after he calls your check raise. Given that bb’s range does start to feel quite strong when you get to the turn, and that you still fire again despite that does feel quite strong.
Your hand certainly qualified as a low equity bluff, and I think you want to have some of those in your range. This board also is one where it is hard to find natural low equity bluffs, as any useful blockers also give you straight draws, so given that your hand seems like it should be bottom of range or close to it, perhaps it was a good candidate. On the other hand, I’d just fold pre-flop with those cards, LOL.
1 Like
to be quite honest… I was just tired of bb stealing my bb… XD