Gotta admit I had no fancy GTO reasoning for this one. It just smelled funny. I got the bad feeling when he led the river. Pretty proud of myself for just calling; I go broke in this spot probably 9/10 times. The intuition is smarter than the conscious brain sometimes, I guess.
I do wonder what the theory says. Probably jam all day long and twice on Sunday. But then, GTO probably doesn’t even use the line I took in the first place.
OK on the river, for value he has:
JJ
KK
KT
maybe partials of QQ and AA, though now we’re getting a bit optimistic. I wouldn’t actually give this particular opponent too much credit for playing those hands this way. Probably still cbets the flop at a high frequency. Probably doesn’t always lead the river, more often check-evaluate/check-call.
I’m not really giving him any bluffs here, tbh. So maybe just calling is more standard than I immediately realized.
If we have specific enough notes can we ever consider folding this river??? Like, if we assume correctly (big assumption, I know, but it’s a pretty scary runout to bluff) that Villain has more or less 0 bluffs, what are we even beating by the river? Exactly T9 suited and… nothing else?
You have QT?
I think T9s definitely bets, and maybe AK sometimes too, so I think it’s a bit tight to fold. I agree there’s basically no bluffs here though - you’d have to find As9s or something like that, and I think anyone capable of finding that would realize you’re just trying to get a pair worse than a J to fold and don’t need to go that large.
Oh, right, you can’t see. I have JT.
So you beat AT and QT then too. I don’t think KK gets here, so you probably have around 70% equity (losing to 4 combos and beating 9). If you think AK might also be in there too, then you should probably raise, but it’s definitely at least a call.