Bad Beats

Okay, so I typed in your hand number and watched the hand. You both played this poorly and you both deserve to lose. Give the money to the little poodle in the SB.

Pre-flop ~ Hero in the stetson limp-calls 3x. Villain totally outplays you here. You should have folded that. Obviously his hand is easily ahead of yours. You will need a lot of help from the board to beat him and that help is likely going to cost you money with zero guarantee of actually getting any. He could have bet a little bigger but there are only 4 seats here and only 2 potential callers so 3x is totally fine and it indeed gets him the perfect isolation that he wants. If you want to build a monster in the lab do it when he’s willing to close it off for free. Otherwise, fold your garbage right here 100% of time.

But we’re here on the flop and so now that we are here we have to keep playing. Villain bets into you for 2bb (approx 30% of pot). You have bottom pair back door hearts (nowhere near nuts btw). This is a check-fold almost 100% of the time. You decided to come over top for double-pot! Whatever you thought you were doing, you were repping 97 or maybe 74 for the straight. At 3x pre probably only 97. Whatever it is, at that sizing it is very bluffy. If you thought he had whiffed and that bottom pair is ahead, bluff is fine because you are weak af here and extremely vulnerable, but if you thought that you were strong (you were wrong but hey), you should have value bet. You come overtop for double pot! Bluff is fine but you could have bluffed with less than that. Pot would have probably been plenty. And you are definitely bluffing because your hand bp-bdf sucks, sorry/not sorry. Any event, he calls. I can question that call but obviously he did not believe you and had you on a bluff. A pot bet he MIGHT have believed you and folded, but he seems pretty fishy. Bottom line though, even most call stations will fold to 2x pot and he didn’t so he has to like his hand! That’s an alarm bell ringing in your ear.

Turn ~ So now that we know absolutely that he has you on a bluff (obviously because he likes his overpair). Continuing bluff is not very likely to work. However, you got horseshoes on that turn for 2-pair (that is basically impossible for him to put you on too). Villain checks to you. Holy cow. Is he slow playing 88 here knowing that you are willing to splash? Or is he really just afraid of the pot despite that massive call he just made. The 2 can’t possibly scare him, that’s for sure. It would pretty much have to be 88 or 66 because he would not call mass with 22 and you block 55. Your 2-pair might not be good here. But you do have a super sneaky 2-pair and yes it might be good here. It’s a bad spot for both of you. If you are confident then this is a value bet situation but what do you do? Splash for nearly 2x pot (again!) with like a 3rd of your deep stack. That’s preposterous! You are continuing bluff! I mean you’re not because you have 2-pair but your bet size tells everyone at the table BLUFF! You are throwing a buttload of chips around in a very sticky situation. To be fair, knowing that he has JJ, I’m not sure that I like his check to you but it is a sticky situation for both of you that you have both made a mess of. He calls you, so at that sizing (rightly or wrongly) he thinks that you are continuing your bluff.

River ~ Villain jams YOU. Whoa! This hand just went nuclear! You call. I mean by this point any move you make could be boss or disaster. It’s THAT f’d up. This hand is such a cluster!@#$%. The pot is way outta control, you can’t really play it. I mean obviously you didn’t have JJ in his range. You should have. He opened 3x pre to your limp. He led 30% on flop. He called your two ridickaliss bets. You think he had air 100%? You had him on a ‘low hand miss’ ok never heard that term before I guess you made that up, but I can guess that it means that you had him on 2 overcards that whiff the board. You can’t assume and zero in on AK whiffed. You have to think of everything in that overcard range. JJ is definitely in that range. Yes he could have been bluffing, he could have also had A8, but you had every opportunity to avoid this disaster. You thought you had him dead to rights but the spot is actually beyond gross and you don’t even see it.

You could have folded a crappy hand pre and kept all of your stack.

You could have folded your crappy hand to his 3x open which had you heavily out-ranged, and kept all of your stack save 1bb.

You could have opened for 4x or 5x and he would have taken your hand more seriously and may have folded to your huge bluff (although he seems pretty fishy so maybe not).

You could have used normal bet sizing on flop and turn and still lost on bad river card for you but would have lost waaay less.

You could have folded river, but by then you were pot committed I guess. Although it’s a ring game, you can fold and top up and save 70k. Also, if you would have used normal bet sizing on flop and turn you would not have been pot committed and could have folded river easily. Also - with normal bet sizing he might have pot bet the river instead of jamming it and maybe you could have called (and lost but lost a ton less).

Yes, you were unlucky but you made a whole lotta funky poor plays. You can’t control the luck but you CAN control your funky plays.

Thanks for the entertainment, that hand was absolutely bonkers to watch, awful spot after awful spot after awful spot. :+1:

AND EXTRA EXTRA READ THIS!!

Oh, and I just checked your bankroll because your rank made me curious. You have just under 200k now. You lost 200k in that hand alone, so you had OVER half your bankroll in your stack at that table!! Why are you playing those stakes … and betting 55k (over 10% of your bankroll!!) on ONE single turn and then calling a river jam with over 70k! That is just holy mad cow, Batman! Thank god it’s play money. Why should you be pissed off with a game if you are not playing it remotely seriously in the first place?

1 Like

When Doyle Brunson plays T2 suited, crap, Junk, etc, he normally isnt calling big raises preflop with it. And if he is up against a good player, and the flop is xTx, with T2, and the good player bets big, he probably isnt going to call, because T3, T4, T%,T6,T7,T8,T9,JT,QT,KT,AT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, 2 pair, set, trips, etc, has him beat, outkicked, etc.

And also Brunson might raise in position on cut off, Button, and might bluff, cbet with T2 air. but he is probably not going to limp call UTG with it.

Brunson would tell you that limp calling 52 suited, UTG is normally a BAD play preflop. Brunson would tell you that calling a big bet on the flop with pair of 5’s, bottom 2 kicker, is USUALLY a bad play on the flop.

The only time you call with that is if you know the other player is a big bluffer, bluffs a lot, and you are bluff catching.

I know this because I have read Super System by Doyle Brunson, understand it, and correctly apply it.

Doyle also would often make big early bets with trash, knowing that the small pots he won would more than cover the times he was called and lost. (also from SuperSysytem).

I agree. You miss the point.
this is about replay and the dealing program it uses to base it hand dealing on…. AGAIN- player A has 2 pair - player B has one pair - it is on the river —- replay deals a jack — one of the two remaining jacks left…… to make a trip for this opponent…… run this at home see how many times you can pull a jack on the river???

i assume you have a deck at home and can deal off two jacks, 2 -5’s
2 2’s (suits are irrelevant) and 4 random cards for the other 2 players
shuffle …… and deal me a jack on the river pal …… lol

poker is also a game of feel- this perp was “set up” by me to push a bet…… he did. as you know you only have about a 32% of hitting a pair on the flop so hitting an A or a K or a J in this case a pair are not good. ALSO being dealt a pair is 16 to 1. that was the risk i took.
AND I HIT my 5!

then hit my 2……

run it and see when you flip a jack on the river first card…… how many times does it take ???

great commentary.

must be a copyrighter for wantabee poker USA.
i’m honored for the word count.

you miss the point entirely.

see additional comments…

I can’t wait till he flops a fullhouse and have someone hit runners for a higher fullhouse. lol.

i ran the hand…. the jack on the river did not show up until the 15th flip…. absolutely proves how ridiculous replay is with thier circus flushes, trip wow-wees! and miracle river cards COMPLETELY A SCAM HERE sorry to burst the bubble on fantasy poker brought to by replay poker…… run it at home for yourselfs … and yes i counted the 8’s and the 6’s also. lol

happens all the time. get a life. clueless like most here. do you know who doyle brunson even is?? lol hes your Daddy pal.

Wow, something that happens one out of 15 times happened on a site where millions of hands are played each day. Must be rigged!

According the Toplists, two Royal Flushes were made here in the last hour - why don’t you sit down and see how many times you have to flip over cards to get two Royals? I’ll wait…

Here’s another experiment you can do: Deal out your two J’s, 5’s and 2’s and then deal out one other card. Regardless of what extra card you dealt, the odds of getting that card are 1 in 46. That’s twice as unlikely as getting another J, so according to your logic, proves your deck of cards is a scam.

yes… all set up with big fearless bets and playing aggressive poker.

this crap happens all the time on this site pal… if you play enough hands here youll see the ridiculous number of flushes, (way over the norm) same with river hand winners) and yes I play a lot of hands here do you??? or do you just like to hear yourself talk on here. lol toplists what crap. get a poker odds calculator from an app store and run some hands and see how ridiculous some of the winning hands are here… so CLUELESS DUDE…

great commentary… you did this all in about a sec and a half ? … dude get a life I know Canada is cold and your politics are well lets just say you got problems… and plenty of time to write obituaries on poker hands, lol. AGAIN YOU MISS THE POINT see my comments on the board as it stands currently how it got to where it is positionally is BEYOND THE SCOPE OF YOUR LITTLE BRAIN PAL… run this in the cold cold winter days in Canada… player a has 52 player b has JJ the flop is 856 the turn is 2 the suits are irelevant you do understand why i hope im giving you the benefit of the doubt here eskmo boy… (just kidding) now deal out 4 cards for the other 2 players… shuffle the remaining cards… BURN A CARD AND FLOP A CARD… QUESTION WHEN DO YOU. HIT A JACK PAL??? … you figured this out yet??? lol and the 8’s and the 6’s are not relevant because replay did not flip on IM TALKING ABOUT HOW REPLAY IN ITS INFINITE FAIRNESS FLIPS A JACK… one of two left… total crap… that is my point here … AND REPLAY IS BIG ON ABSURIDITY AND THE RIDICULOUS NOT BASED ON REAL POKER ODDS AS ILLUSTRATED BY ANY POKER ODDS APP… SORRY TO BREAK YOUR. LITTLE BUBBLE…

Really, how often should you see a flush, and how often do you actually see them on Replay?

Want to take a guess at how many flushes there were in the last 200 hands you played?

The answer is 6

hahaha. yes I know who Brunson is and he’s not my Daddy. R.I.P. Mr Brunson.

now how about you get a life and drop this. yes, we all know you hit two pairs and the other player hit the river card to beat you. so what? get over it.

Yes, of hitting a pair if they don’t already have one. You have to combine with the odds of them having a pocket pair. They opened, so their range is going to be pair heavy. They actually have nearly a 50% chance of having a pair on the flop, and given you have bottom pair, worst kicker, that gives then about 67% equity:

(from Texas Hold’em Poker Range Analysis Tool, for anyone interested)

Good to know you can “set up” someone by raising when you’re way behind.

1 Like

I watched the hand, complaining about losing that hand is well…comical to say the least.
How it went is:
UTG called the BB. BB raised 3x the bet with his excellent pp.
UTG gambled by calling the raise with suited rags.
Flop comes out rags 856, BB bets 2x the blind, UTG raises 6 1/2x that after pairing a 5. BB easily leading doesn’t go for that mini-bluff and calls.
Turn comes, UTG gets lucky hitting a 2nd pair, a 2, and bets huge. BB looks at garbage board and thinks “no way”, calling that, not really knowing he’s now behind with 8 outs.
River comes, BB gets some luck back hitting his set, and that was the end of that, lol.
I probably have at least a thousand “bad beats” that are FAR worse than that!
Have a good day and good luck at the tables.

1 Like

lol add the duce on the turn… then run this with the odds of hitting a jack only on the river and see what wonder wizzard tells you the percentages are… off the charts pal… you cant use this as a reference why? because im not talking about flop or pre flop strategy which is what this program is about… yes NORMALLY this is a bad play HOWEVER again given the startegy of playing for a miss on the flop by an opponent against a low hole card scenario ( figure out that program wiz kid) youll see a whole new way to play additional hands given certain game circumstances… ( way out this conversation here) see sam farha … plays off hands all the time and cracks AA and KK with 2 pair low hands… just sayin pal…

Right. There are some players who only open raise AA, KK and limp in with pretty much everything else. I’ll play any 2 cards against these guys when they open too, because if you do hit 2-pair+, you’re going to stack them every time.
You can’t be trying to crack AA and KK while also putting your opponent on a non-pair hand though - that makes no sense. You don’t have 2-pair on the flop anyway, so you need to pick a story and stick to it.

You also can’t ignore they have outs to the 6 and 8 as well. If you’re going to look at just what did happen, well then, the odds of that are 100% or 1/46 depending on how you want to look at it (but that’s true no matter what card is dealt). They could also have pocket 8’s or 56s or even 79, in which case the river is basically irrelevant.

Any way you slice it, you made a terrible play on the flop, got bailed out with a 5-outer on the turn, then bested with an eight outer on the river. The odds were by far more against you than not in this hand, so how is the result unexpected?

1 Like

here’s a nice “replay flush” …… Log In · Get into our Poker Games - Replay Poker

so lame but so fn replay

see #1228212910 … leaves a good taste in your mouth in the small blind the perp is not in great postion…. gotta love replay let’s see i count 7 spades showing half the dam spades what crap