In the interest of transparency, I’d like to post two examples of bluffs I’ve run that have been called. Both are from a session that I played this morning, and while I lost chips on these two hands, overall the session was profitable, picking up about 300K (75BB) over ~200 hands at the 2K-4K tables.
Hand #1: I’m holding 8 
5 in the big blind, 4-handed. Cutoff flats, button folds, SB flats, and I check my option. Board comes T T 
5 
. SB folds, I minbet into a 3BB pot (as I would with most holdings, including when I make a pair on a paired board), and the cutoff calls. Turn is (T T 5 ) 3 . I opt to bet about 2/3 pot with my pair and baby flush draw. Cutoff min-raises me. I call. The pot is now about 18BB.
At this point, I have a plan for most rivers. If a ten or a five comes, I’m going to lead out and hope for a call, likely calling a re-raise. With a heart that’s 9 or higher, I’ll lead out as well. With an A, 2, 4, 6, or 7 of hearts, I’ll check, hoping my opponent will bluff a straight, and raise, calling a re-raise. A 3 will cause me to check-fold. An 8 will lead me to check-call. Finally, with a blank, I’ll look to check-raise as well.
The river actually comes (T T 5 3 ) J . In keeping with my plan, I check to the cutoff, who fires out a pot-sized bet. I bump it up to 47.5BB - slightly more than a half-pot reraise. When the cutoff jams, I fold.
On this hand, you could probably make the argument that I’m bluffing way too much in this spot. I’ll probably play most of my heart flush draws like this, and maybe 64 as well.
Hand #2: I’m dealt A J 
, again in the big blind. We’re now nine-handed, and by the time the action gets to me, I’m looking at 4 callers and a folded small blind. Since I’ll be playing this hand out of position, I try to raise on the larger side - 5.5x. Somehow, only one of the four callers finds the fold button.
When the flop comes 7 T 6 , I have two overcards and a backdoor nut flush draw. Time to keep telling my story. I lead out with a bet of roughly 2/3 pot - 65K into 94.5K. The primary villain (UTG+1) calls, and the other two players fold.
The turn, (7 T 6 ) Q , creates a backdoor flush draw, while giving me an inside broadway draw. I continue for 140K into a pot of 224.5K. On this street, I was concerned about my opponent’s stack size. If I bet much bigger, then he’ll be pot-committed by the river and won’t fold to any bluffs. However, if I go much smaller, then I lose out on fold equity on this street. In any case, he calls, and we’re looking at a pot of just under 500K for the river, while he has about 225K behind.
The river is (7 T 6 Q ) 7 . None of the draws have gotten there, and the paired board now brings the possibility of a set becoming a boat or quads beating a straight. I jam, and the villain calls, showing J J 
.
I really don’t like this call by the villain for a few reasons. He loses to any queen, a straight, and of course boats and quads. Also, he’s blocking most of the bluff hands that I could have - there are now significantly fewer combinations of AJ and KJ, just one combination of JTs, and any flush draw containing the jack of clubs. If I had 88 or 99 I’d probably check on either turn or river rather than continue to barrel.
In any case, he called, and I lost a rather large pot.
Now, what should we take away from this?
First, I don’t regret my plays here (except maybe I was too bluffy with 85 in the first hand). By bluffing in these spots, and announcing my holdings, it makes it more likely that I’ll get paid off when I do have strong value hands. I shouldn’t be results-oriented, calling these “bad” bluffs because they were called; rather, I need to analyze whether I’m bluffing too much in these spots, and that the decision-making behind them was sound.
Second, that I recognized where I had draws, reevaluating the board on each street. In these cases, I made the decision to build a pot on earlier streets based on those draws. That resulted in a pot that was worth bluffing at by the river - or would have been nice to scoop if the draws had come in. It also builds the story that every hand I’m in, I could make a play for your stack. You can’t do that if you play passively through the turn, waiting only to start bluffing or value-betting when all the cards are on the table.
Third, that it’s important to have (reasonable) bluffs in your range when you bet on the river. Yes, in these two instances they didn’t work out, but often - particularly when I’m firing across multiple streets - I’ll get folds and a healthy pot.
Finally, that I’m human. Sometimes my bluffs get called. Other times my opponents fold to my value bets. The key is to play a balanced strategy so that my bluffs are credible and my value bets are callable. This last point is incredibly important, and it’s how I was able to end the session up overall, despite getting two large bluffs called.