Why is it so !@#$ hard to win an MTT?

Replay Poker Poker Discussion
1

A few days ago I went on a great run and made 80% of final tables for all the MTTs I played in a single day. Today, I feel I am playing almost as well, but I have busted before the money in almost every tourney I entered. This prompted me to take a quick look at variance in simplified terms.

Assuming we have to go all-in on average 4 times to cash in a 40-person MTT, and assuming we are a 2:1 favorite every time, what are the odds that we make the money? In this simplified scenario, we would only cash a little less than 1 in 5 times!

Of course this is a dramatic oversimplification, but it reminds me how often a series “flips” (or even all-ins where we are substantially ahead) can go against us. Stick to the grind and the results will come. Short-term you can be playing literally perfect and still lose 5 times in a row!

3 Likes
2

Just had the same issue in a smaller MTT and to go all in probably 6 - 8 times in Omaha. But with large stack & Premium hand’s, it paid off for the win. But agree if not our day, grind it out with patience, discipline & faith for the win on each hand!! :+1:

3

It’s a grind. You cannot let your blinds get raised… and when you’re not a blind, FOLD… especially if your at the final two tables. .Anything short of KQ suited…FOLD.

1 Like
4

Alternatively, this:

haha aggression go brr

5

Have you practiced playing short handed/heads up? That might be why you make the final table but not win it

6

My headsup game is very strong! This post was really just a “thinking out loud” about variance :slight_smile:

1 Like