https://www.casino.org/replaypoker/replay/1194725495/two-pair-queens-and-threes
What should I have done differently here? Something to note is @belgiumfann was playing very loosely. Also thank you @Younguru for the url tip.
https://www.casino.org/replaypoker/replay/1194725495/two-pair-queens-and-threes
What should I have done differently here? Something to note is @belgiumfann was playing very loosely. Also thank you @Younguru for the url tip.
What should you have done differently? Ask for an A on the board next time!
Looks like you made the right decision. Unlucky!
Well that’s what matters to me in the end. it’s not like I can cash these chips out at the end of the night lol. And calling people off to see if I’m right is my favorite excuse for being so low on chips!
Be bankrolled properly so you can keep playing in games this good. You’re going to win a ton on table like that in the long run, but you need the bankroll to be able get to showdown and lose a few times to make that more of a certainty.
In terms of the hand - it’s better to shove here than call, so you did nothing wrong in the hand itself.
Some solid advice for in real life cash games as well. Never hurts to have a bankroll. I’ve noticed, watching the high limit clips on YouTube, whenever someone busts out they’ll just reach in their bag for more chips.
Here there were a lot of factors that led me to fold AK:
I am not sure what solver thinks about this spot; I imagine it still likes to call quite a bit. Hard to assess here without being results-oriented, but I’m fine with the fold too.
Not too long later Chelsea got short again and shoved A6o into my 99. I won that hand and finished in 2nd place to the ever-dangerous @RyRyRobe (congrats!).
So that does kinda support my thinking that there would be much higher EV spots down the road, though it’s also so small-sample anecdotal as to be more arbitrary than probative.
I fold AKo if BTN 3-bets and SB 4-bet shoves at 100bb deep, but when you’re down to 20bb, you can’t really have a significant edge.
Your point about the bubble may be valid, but a little bit of luck here and you are guaranteed 2nd with over a 2:1 chip lead, so it goes both ways.
Pretty sure on balance this is a close, but mandatory call.
I think my edge at 20bb is probably bigger than my edge at 50bb. Simply put, everyone is scared of busting, and any significant bet means your whole stack could be at risk by the end of the hand. This leads to drastic overfolding, which is great for an aggressive player like myself who likes to get out of line and punish passivity. You’d be surprised the hands people will fold, even with antes in play, for a preflop minraise, or a 1/3 pot cbet.
Anyway I agree that this is probably a theoretical pure call at this depth. I still like the exploit here in this configuration. I give Chelsea basically AK/JJ+ (I think he might flat TT) and even blocking Ax and Kx I think sam’s range contains plenty of those hands too. Idk maybe I’m giving my reads too much credit but I have played a lot of hands with both these opponents, and the scenario did end up being pretty much exactly what I thought (read: about as bad as it gets for AK without being up against KK/AA), so I’m inclined to say it’s a reasonable exploit fold.
I don’t know. If you look at GTO Wizard at 17bb (which is the stack depth it thinks you get to start raising AKo instead of just open shoving), it’s a pure call even if the big blind enters the pot as well.
So even against 2 very tight ranges and the BTN, it’s still a call in theory.
That would be the one case were I do agree that this could be a profitable exploit. Solver thinks the call is only winning at 4.5bb (out of a bigger pot against solver ranges) - you probably come out ahead by folding if you can pick up the blinds twice uncontested.
OK, the specific hand callout is a little Negreanu-style fake prowess; I more or less just picked the hand I most wanted him to have and then looked smart when I happened to be right lol
But I really think a lot of these guys’ preflop 3bet range is just sooooo so narrow. Again, especially when they use the clickback size!
These configs are just going to be JJ+ vs. AQ/AK so much of the time IMO. In this player pool, that is
Wild fold at this stack depth right? I think it’s a totally justified exploit. I just do not think they are doing this hardly ever with, like, 99 or AJs. OK maybe the shorty, but not stevepro. And even then, I’ve seen short stacks fold hands like 99/AJ in this spot. Replay MTT regs REALLY hate busting!
EDIT: I won the tournament since it’s good to be results-oriented, this proves it was a correct fold.
I think all that proves is that this site is rigged How else do you explain me knowing less about a spot than the player up at the top of the MTT leaderboards?
I can see why you’re getting a bit tired of grinding tournaments though. I rarely have the time or patience to play them - it would drive me crazy if I had to start folding AK in spots like these.
Low stakes game and small pot, sure but I saw this today. Now this guy was really poorly ranked but he ended up winning the tourney with some pretty smart plays so maybe he’s just new. When I saw him raise the flop 500 and leave 375 behind I thought, “what the @#$% is he doing?” But when he showed down with inside straight (completed on the turn) was he betting for value or was it just a 1/2 pot button click? (yes, the pot was 1000)
This is bad. He should be all in pre, or at least all in on the flop. But with so little behind none of it really makes a difference anyway, so whatever I guess.
For the record, @Pokerheinz is not new I’ve faced him before and he seems generally competent, if certainly very exploitative/not a “textbook” player.