That’s a hand with all sorts of dynamics going on.
It is a Final table in this tournament : https://www.replaypoker.com/tournaments/2127435, so once I have got past the bubble, I think I am inclined to raise pre flop with AK and not risk 1/6th of my chips by limping. On the other hand, given the two short stacked players, it might be better to wait. In this hand if the 2,900 stack pushes after you, it is perfect.
As for the chances in the hand, if you get it all-in vs JJ pre flop (lets assume the K-9 folds) you are 46% vs 54% and its close enough to a flip. - This makes shoving pre flop more attractive to me because hands like JJ and any other lower pair who are favourite against you in a race might fold as you noted. Picking up the 2,760 pot unchallenged seems worthwhile.
Once the board hits you are 50% to get a clean win and JJ has 40% while K9 is hoping to split at best (the other 10% of the time)
Surely, its not a Bad Beat? While its annoying that both the turn and river were in the winners final hand, the odds of the specific two cards are academic. You always have a 55% chance to get something from the hand and a 50% chance to get it all but there was a 40% chance to lose by any means.
Yeah, this hand plays itself postflop. None of the three players can fold, nut straight, second nut straight, and set with very little behind. A set has plenty of equity against a straight, so it is not really a bad beat, they just need the board to pair, which will happen 30+% of the time.
Limping AK is a criminal offense any time, but especially with these stacks. With ~10 bbs left I am open shoving AK every time. If you get folds you are happy to win ~2.3 bbs uncontested. If you get called, you are often ahead of hands Replay players would call with (AT+ or even worse) and flipping with pocket pairs. AKo has 57% equity against a pretty conservative replay calling range. If you limp and miss the flop then you just basically threw away one of the best starting hands in poker instead of adding 20% to your stack, doubling up, or eliminating an opponent.
Also, you say you want to shove and get a fold; no, you want to get your full stack in no matter what, you don’t want any folds. Yes, you will lose some percentage of the time, but poker is all about getting your chips in to maximize your expected value, and playing AK aggressively is a great way to do that.
No yeah, this morning after thinking about it, I regret not raising at least 3x if not shoving… I was more surprised at two nines coming up than the board pairing in general. Oh well. Moral of the story, that was the moment of the entire tournament where I was the least aggressive. I did a great job earlier at getting folds to win big pots with aggressive all-ins so this was my major mistake of the tournament, IMO.