Tournament Victories and Bad Beat Defeats

I don’t use rank much to infer how my opponents will play, with 2 exceptions:

  1. if a player ranked 5k-10k or something like that limp-shoves, it’s always A A.
  2. players ranked in the top 500 or so tend to have wider ranges/be more aggressive. some of them are still massive nits tho, so notes are definitely superior to a rank-based heuristic.

Well in contrast to this bad beat, in the Galactic Storm 50k buy in 2.5 mil GTD, at least I took 6th in the 50k 1 rebuy, 1 add on, 3 mil GTD Deep and Slow, and 3rd in the 50k buy in 2.5 mil GTD, softening this bad beat, and continuing end to bad run, and now up to about 5.9 mil.

I limped 75 off on button behind limper in fron to monster hand mine. Then QQ semi fish min raised, I called. flop was 5x7, Villain bet 135. I reraise to 375. Villain shoved. I called. monster hand mining so far according to plan. turn brought full house. Miracle 2 out Q hit river to bad beat my 2 pair, full house.

Here Hand History:

Hand #1172352667 · Replay Poker

Well after the 2 cashes, I now have had 5 bad beat out at the hands of semi fish chasers, in a row.

Here is just the latest example.

I had 97 on cutoff, at 30/60 level in the 100k buy in, 3 mil GTD PKO. Now I should have open raised it, but instead I chose to open limp it on the cut off, to monster hand mine. Villain was ranked 3000, so surpising to see him fish chase. He opened to 2x bb preflop with A5. Ok, but a larger sizing would have been better. I call min raise to monster hand mine. Flop came 87K. A5 villain min bet 60, I tested him by reraising to 180. he called, floated on no pair no draw, which just barely ok by skin of his teeth. But a fold would have been better, as he should have thought that I had the 7 or 8 or K, etc. Turn brought 87K6, bringing me middle pair, straight draw, and villain a straight draw, and a possible already made 3 card straight. He again min bet 60 into now about a 550 pot. He possibly could be the type to do that on K, or straight, but figured he was on draw or had pair of 7’s, 6’s, and that I could rep the straight, K, and if wrong, beat by a made straight that could make straight, chop, at extreme worst. If he folds, I get a nice 550 pot, and if he calls, I am likely against about a 13% to win draw on turn, where I about 85% to win, or K or a 7 better kicker, a 8, with about a 13% to win. But I didnt think Villain would call, and I was ok with that, and ok with 550 pot. If he had a draw, I wanted him to pay too way too much to call. I was shocked that a 3000 ranked villain called on only 13% to win on bad about 1.5 to 1 pot odds, when he needed about 6.5 to 1 pot odds to correctly call, break even. Even if account for PKO, still need at least about 3,4 to 1 pot odds, to justify calling, as bounties can be figured into pot odds. But even with bounties figuring into pot odds, 1.5 to 1 pot odds, just not good enough. 1 would think a 3000 ranked player would know that, etc. In any case I got my chips in good, my reads were right, and play was right, and just got unlucky. A lot of these kind of semi bad beats that knock me out of tournaments has been happening a lot the last about 5 tournaments in a row. But hopefully that turns around soon, and doesnt become another very bad run after the small handful of cashes that happened after the last bad run. But even if do go on another long epic bad run, it will turn around, and I will cash, win, build, increase bankroll over the long term.

Note part of the reason to post bad beat Hand Histories, is so that remember how to post them, and to stay in habit of posting hand histories, etc.

Here Hand History

Hand #1172609935 · Replay Poker

@Asuronetorius

I’d like to apologize to you for my recent post. I violated one of my own personal rules to never criticize another person’s poker strategy since I don’t know what the best strategy is.

I see you’ve done very well on here after only being on here for less than 2 months. Good luck and hope you continue to have fun.

I appreciate your justifications, but there’s really no benefit to posting hands that are truly “bad beats.” That means you didn’t make a mistake, and you just got unlucky. There’s nothing to learn from that, and these long paragraphs describing hands from which there’s nothing to learn are kinda tiresome to read

I won the Replay Challenge 100k buy in 3 mil GTD, for a 1.7 mil win to goto just short of about 7 mil in Bankroll.

I semi dominated for most of tournament, was chip leader for most of the final table. Then I started having trainwrecks of KK losing to AA, QQ to KK, JJ to QQ, AK suited to QQ, that 3 times knocked me down 15k to 20k to 25k to 30k down to 40k, 35k, 30k from 70k chip leader. But each time I grinded stack back up to 2nd in chips, 1st in chips, to 53k to 70k, by a combination of grinding smaller pots, and winning 1,2 bigger pots, with better, best hand, and some timely smaller pot bluffs, that worked, and 1 semi big, between semi bluff to bluff, that won a semi big pot. I had a very good image, and I chose the right players, spots to bluff. Then won a very long, hard heads up battle against a about a 2500 to 2700 to 3000 ranked semi pro player, that I gave a pro endorsement to.

I’ll post a number of key hand histories that made this win possible. Some of them bluffs, some semi bluff’s, some that semi marginal made hands turned into semi bluffs, or pushed to protect hands from draws, pick up pots, etc.

1st HH:

Hand #1172672325 · Replay Poker

2nd HH

Hand #1172674072 · Replay Poker

3rd HH

A high semi airball bluff with might be semi best hand. Think Villain had bottom pair, A3 suited, bottom pair draw, AQ, AT suited Draw, AJ suited Draw, KQ suited draw, A9 suited draw, and was small betting marginal holding to try to either make draw, or improve bottom pair for cheap, or hit overcards on later streets for cheap, and hoping that I would go away, etc. I wanted it to appear that I was taking a long time to think how to extract value, and that I had slowplayed until I decided to check reraise all in to protect made, better hand from a possible diamond flush draw on turn. It worked. It probably looked like I had a strong hand.

Hand #1172667036 · Replay Poker

I won back to back tourny’s. The first one today, was in the 100k buy in, 3 mil GTD Century chase. The 2nd today in the League’s invitational 250k high roller, for 2 mil win. The 250k league’s invitational high roller, had some of the better, best, semi toughest players, field on the site. So it took a combination of some semi great play by me, and a lot of luck, as that field really challenged me, put me to the test, and I had to challege, put that challege, test, to the test, combined with the luck to win. Thanks to, for those who played well, which was pretty much almost all of them to all of them, and made that possible.

Thanks to those 2 wins, I shot past the 10 mil mark at about almost 12 mil, in the first 2 month’s of being here at Replay. I aslo have about 10 to 13 tourney wins my first 2 months. I also made the top 10 MTT tourny point leaderboards for week, and month at #5 for month, and #7 for week.

And this has happened despite a 30 to 33 to 36 to 39 tourney semi epic bad run, where only cashed 1, 2 times, and only won 1 tourny out of that semi epic bad run, and despite that, and despite going from about 4.75 mil to 2.8 mil, earlier because of that semi epic bad run, I still have overcome that with good play, not tilting or not tilting as much, and because luck, variance, eventually turns around.

So this shows that there is nothing wrong with Replay’s RNG, etc.

I hope this gives player’s hope. And since I did it, am doing it, as not entirely there yet, etc. Then it can be done by others, as almost anyone can work hard, play hard, work well, play well, and study hard, study well, and the poker resources are a combination or free, relatively almost free, cheap, etc.

If this isn’t a bad beat then I don’t known what is. I feel like I can’t win at this game anymore. Imagine losing on the river to this.

https://www.casino.org/replaypoker/replay/1180315574/full-house-eights-full-of-kings

1 Like

How can it be a bad beat when you were behind the entire hand?

2 Likes

@frankd95 ,Alway’s tough to lose with ace/high flush, but have to remember a Boat may be coming. Thanks Replay for the free site & chips :slight_smile: gl at the tables and always have Fun !!!

Frank I hope this doesn’t come across as being insensitive, or bad. I am trying to help you, in a very constructive way, and hopefully it helps others, as well.

Frank, its not that you cant win. You, others can win, but have to play right to win. In this hand you did not play right. You may think you play right, but you didnt. Many that go on bad runs, and even good runs, play like you did, seem to do, and think they play right, when they dont play right.

I’ll break down your Hand History.

First a early position player raised 9000 on a 4000 chip blind. Usually that indicates a strong hand. playability Now that can be marginal hand, uncommonly, but even if its a uncommon marginal, there other problem(s)

Next another player called, which can indicate another strong hand. The Likely ranges of these 2 hands are: QJ suited, KJ suited, KQ, A8 suited to AK, 55 to AA. Most to almost all of that range CRUSHES A4 suited, and even QJ suited, KJ suited, KQ has GREAT POSTFLOP PLAYABILITY

Then you wrongly called 9k with A4 suited, because of your KICKER. you either fold pre or reraise big to squeeze, try to force folds(should only be done carefully on rare occasions, vs right players, spots,etc). If a A hit postflop, you can easily be up against A7 suited to AK. You may have had good pot odds to call, but the pot odds rules, dont always apply, and especially against early position raisers, and callers, the pot odds rules usually dont apply. You should only consider pot odds calling if your either limping behind in late position to monster hand mine, or if your defending on BB, SB, with a minimum defense frequency hand like A4 suited on blinds.

The other problem with calling with A4 suited is it can set you up to be squeezed reraised all in. Q7 was not a good squeeze as it was semi likely to be called, and if called would be way behind. But Q7 could have been 88 to AA, A9 suited to AK, KQ suited. And it was called by both the preflop open raiser, and the caller, which could indicate 99 to AA, AQ, AK, KQ suited, so when you called with A4 suited, it was likely, about 99% chance at least 1 of the 3, if not 2,3 had you crushed preflop, and your chances of winning postflop is about 7% to 13% to 23% vs the other 3 players. You may have thought you were getting good 3 to 1 pot odds to call, but you needed 8 to 1 pot odds to call, and 8 to 1 would have made you 2% to 4% to 6% to win, so calling is LOSING over the long term, in that situation, spot, etc.

the All in flopped board may have seemed insane, etc, but those kind of sitiations can happen easily. you got lucky and unlucky at same time, but that was supposed to happen about 98% of the time, because thats how far behind you were preflop.

This so called supposedly bad beat, etc, happened because you didnt fold preflop the first time, and didnt fold to the reraise all ins, like you should have. As such this really was NOT a bad beat. A bad beat is where the worst hand and best hand get all in preflop, and the worst hand wins. So you almost bad beated 88. So you did not get bad beated.

Next time learn to fold like you should and this stuff either wont happen, or will happen less, etc.

It’s these type of things, that can either cause bad runs or extend bad runs, or cause bad runs to not get turned around, etc.

I’m sorry that this happened to you. Hopefully you learn from it. And good luck, better luck in the future.

AWWW you were losing before the flop, after the flop, on the turn and after the river my friend-so HOW is this a bad beat? just curious:)

Much easier, he was card clashing:)

Currently ranked #1 on Yearly MTT High Leaderboard :slight_smile:
This is not one of my better days—I made several major mistakes—but it’s pretty representative of how things go much of the time :confused:

Finished the day with a couple nice placings and got back into the black :smiley:

If you are losing a lot, try not to get discouraged! Poker is hard. Tournaments are extra hard. You can be doing everything right and still lose the vast majority of the time.

Keep grinding… <3

2 Likes

Not bad, 3 final tables is pretty good.

Strange trend emerging for me. Each time I get knocked out early in Nordic Warriors I will end up winning or doing well if I enter another tournament that night. Two wins and an RPOS final table. Bad luck could just be good luck in disguise

1 Like

I’m down 600 million today thanks to these two completely ridiculous bad beats against the same guy within about a half hour of each other:

Log In · Get into our Poker Games - Replay Poker (had 93-plus percent equity when the money went in. Guy for some reason called 50M preflop with T8o and then tried to give me the rest of it on the flop)

Log In · Get into our Poker Games - Replay Poker (flopped the nuts, check-raised big, guy called for almost half his stack with 7 outs and then hit one of them)

The first one is sick and nasty af.

The second one was a risky move but I can understand.

Risky how? I have the nuts on the flop. I’m trying to get in as many chips as possible. I have the second nuts on the turn, and my opponent has a little over 1/2 pot behind. The rest of the chips are going in no matter what.

I was talking about his move, not yours.

1 Like