To Call or Not to Call, That is the Question

Replay Poker Poker Strategy
83

In unrelated news, I scored my biggest pot on Replay against this player today in a heads up game(#934921573). Undoubtedly a player far superior to me, who I happened to have some luck against.

After your call of his turn raise your range is Ax, FHs which opt not to re-raise, and an unbelieving JJ+ since there no draws to continue with given the sizing and paired board. For all of these holdings a river bluff would be foolish. Raising turn then overbetting river with A8- is silly, it’s not strong enough for value and not weak enough for a bluff.

I can’t entertain him bluffing with an inside straight draw given the paired board. So he has either a better ace, FH or is airballing. Given the strength you’ve shown by calling his turn raise I would see the latter as unlikely but not zero. Unless you have a read this player is bluffing too often or tends to overvalue hands, I think you can just fold.

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84

Nice pot :+1:t2:

85

He said something similar after the hand: “What are the logical bluffs? Maybe KQ or similar gut shots. But will they fire the over bet on the river, given how hard it is to get an ace to fold there.” If you do buy that he is likely to under bluff in this spot, I think it probably is a pure fold, though I obviously thought at the time that he’d have some bluffs in range.

86

Going back to hand 93481242 (Kc6c on board of Js5s4c6c facing pot sized all in on turn after calling overbet on flop) here are some equities:

  • vs 55, 44, As4s, and 8s7s: 24.72%
  • vs above plus As3s, Ac3c, As6s, As2s: 36.16%

I eliminated JJ, agreeing that I’m almost never going to limp behind with this hand (the exception being if I expect a raise behind me a very high percentage of the time that I could then 3 bet into, which was not the case here). Against the first range, Ks6s doesn’t have anywhere close to the equity it needs to call, while against the 2nd, with more bluffs, it does. And so as usual it gets down to what kind of range you think your opponent makes their bet with.

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If you are asking about your call decision on the river, with a set at that price (about a 1/3 pot bet) I don’t think you can fold. I won’t have many bluffs at all at that size, but I’ll have quite a bit of thin value that you’ll be ahead of (I might think I’m ahead with 2 pair).

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On the other hand, if you are wondering if I should have made the turn call when you raised, I’d agree that I was pretty clearly behind most of your range, and without the right direct odds to call, and even if I hit a flush, how often will you really call a big bet on the river? At the time I thought any jack or queen might also be an out, but as I look at the hand again, all of a sudden your range feels more condensed towards sets than I really thought as I made the call. I think it’s fair to regard the call as somewhat iffy.

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89

I think it’s a mandatory flat call on the river. I expect a solver to say a raise is needed sometimes but I wouldn’t simply because I don’t know what worse can call other than some Ax two pairs. Also being re-raised would be a tough spot that I’d rather avoid.

Yoru’s line is very strong after calling the turn then leading river for 30%. A bluff holding Ah with nut removal for example would demand a much larger sizing. This river bet is either a blocker or trying to induce a raise. Galak’s range becomes uncapped after the turn raise so leading into him as a small bluff would be foolish, which further makes me think this is just a flat call.

And folding is out of the question, you can never fold a set to this size on this board, otherwise you’re way too bluffable.

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90

Thanks Yoru & unskilld for your analysis, which is great as always. I was surprised by Yoru’s call of my big 3bet on the turn, of course I liked the call. As you both mentioned I can never fold the river bet at this prize. Yoru hit one of his 9 (?) outs … gg. Perfect example for “Way ahead, way behind.”
Thanks again for your input guys, I thought it was an interesting hand worth posting here.
Cheers
G

91

On a full six max 100k/200k table I have AcJc in the cutoff, and face a raise to $600k from a most sinister villain in the low jack seat. I 3 bet to $1,750,000, after which both blinds fold. Villain is less impressed, and 4 bets to $5.5 million. I call.

A lot of folks on the site won’t 4 bet with anything but AA, but I thought that was not the case here, but that still that I’d be facing a fairly strong, probably more merged than polarized range. Here’s one 4 betting range possible, though I thought at the time that his range was probably at least somewhat stronger than this.
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The flop comes 6h3d8c, which doesn’t seem too likely to help either of us, and villain bets $5 million, almost half pot. I thought at the time that there were a lot of AA and KK in range for villain, and that most of the rest of villain’s range was ahead of me also, but felt with the back door flush draw I should continue. I didn’t consider an all in raise at the time, but with the back door flush draw and my nut advantage (see my range below), suspect I should have at least considered that.

My range going into the flop (note that I have 88 and 66):
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In any case, I just called, and the turn comes the ace of spades. Now it felt like I was ahead of nothing but KK (I didn’t really think I’d see as many combos of KQs, KJs, KTs, A5s or A4s as are in the range chart I provided for villain). Our clone of Darth Vader makes life even harder by betting small, $8 million (I have a little over $26 million left behind). I call, the river is the 8 of diamonds, and villain bets again, putting me all in if I call.

I need to invest $18.5 million to have a chance to win roughly $55 million (total pot of $74 million if I call). Should I call or fold?

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92

In your spot I would go with a raise or fold strategy postflop after missing with AJ, leaning towards fold. My range is top heavy but you have all the sets for this board since you 3bet/called. You also have 99-JJ which should raise frequently to fold out my missed overcards. I’m very likely folding to a postflop jam with both my exact hand and a number of combos in my range.

The turn ace changes everything, and given the SPR was about 1 I think it’s just a cooler. I deliberately sized down since I gained range advantage and wanted to keep your mid pairs in, also to set up a half pot river shove which would require you to call with a wide array of hands. You’re more or less committed to stacking off if any ace appears after flatting my postflop bet.

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93

Yeah, I kind of felt like the turn doomed me, especially with your small bet, and also that probably both raising and folding were better options than calling on the flop.

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it’s borderline fold preflop if you don’t expect him to have 4 bet bluffs.
easy fold on the flop since you really don’t beat anything. Hitting either A or J doesn’t make it comfortable. Raising will look very bluffy because what hands are you really going to raise with there. No reason to raise a set on a rainbow board.
as played, call turn is ok.
fold river, because he’s not going to try to bluff with KK or QQ. it’s basically saying AA or AK (most likely AK since there’s only 1 combo of AA)

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95

Just had a hand I thought would be nice for the thread.

Hero raises under the gun with AsAh to 4.5 big blinds. Stacks are roughly 150 bb effective. The button calls, and the villain in the big blind also calls, and the pot is $7,275,000.

The flop is 5s7sQh, a flop that does not favor hero’s range (both the button and the big blind will have reasonable equity, and a good density of nutted hands), so a small range bet with 100% of hero’s holdings does not seem appropriate here, and we’d expect instead somewhat larger bets with a smaller part of hero’s range. Hero’s hand is certainly strong enough to bet, but along with KK and QQ, it is also amont the strong hands least in need of protection. However, it is a relatively wet board, and there are many weaker holdings that either the button on the big blind might possess that will want to continue, and hero chooses to bet 1/2 pot. The button folds, and villain, the big blind, calls. The pot is now just shy of $15 million.

The turn is the 6 of clubs, for a 5s7sQh6c board. 98 is now the nuts, but would 98 have called the flop bet usually (gut shot draw). 9s8s certainly would have, and perhaps 9h8h as well. Villain could also obviously have a set, a queen, or even a middle pocket pair like 88, or even a hand like 87 or 65. There are also hands still on a draw, and so there is a lot that will call for value, but also a lot where we are already behind. Here concludes that there are still more hands behind that will call for value than there are hands that are hands ahead of AA, and bets $8.5 million (over half pot). Villain raises all in, for a more than 2x overbet of the pot.

Should hero call or fold?

With the button’s pre-flop call, villain can probably call behind with a pretty wide range. What hands likely call the flop bet, and then massively overbet? Let’s assume 3 combos of 98, 3 combos of 77, and 1 combo of 55 make the bet for value. Some players will also make this bet with KK and 2 pair. That hero has the ace of spades is bad, as it reduces the frequency of flush draws available for villain to bluff with. Still, any 8 also gives villain an open ended straight draw, and so there are plenty of possible bluffing candidates that an aggressive player might come up with. Any queen where both cards where spades would also make a lot of sense, so hands like QsJs, QsTs, and especially Qs9s and Qs8s might be tempting to play this way. And if villain will also consider any low equity bluffs, the bluffing combos seem likely to greatly outnumber the value combos?

Here is equity against 3 different villain ranges:

  • 98s (all 4 suited combos), 77, 55, KsQs, QsJs, QsTs, Qs9s, Qs8s, Qs6s: 23.58% equity only, and AA is getting crushed
  • everything above and KsTs, Ks8s, Ks6s, JsTs, Js8s, Js6s, Ts9s, Ts8s, Ts6s, 9s6s and we are up to 42.12% equity, which is reasonably close to break even
  • adding in only a few combos of KK and we are making a profit handily, but adding in other 2 pair combos hurts some; but if we now add in a smattering of suprising bluffs, like 42 off, we should look pretty good?

What is your verdict, call or fold?

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Jk, play hands and tournaments SO different if money games or here:).

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Here’s a nice one from today. Should QQ call or fold to the turn jam? I’ve seen this opponent make large overbet bluffs, as well as overbets for value. QQ could easily be against the nut straight or a set. Having the queen of spades is mostly bad, as it reduces the frequency that I’ll be up against a flush draw (though it does make it more likely that I’ll stay ahead of a flush draw).

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98

That’s a tuff call but in the end we can clearly see a fold was in order with QQ.

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99

Of course with the actual cards my opponent had, the call was profitable, as I had well over 50% equity, but in trying to come up with some likely ranges, I think the call only works if the big blind is over bluffing (which is a possibility, but not anything I’m particularly confident about).

Let’s first think about a possible pre-flop calling range for the big blind. Given that they defended with 63s, it seems they are defending a bit wide, so maybe a range something like all hands in blue below (where some of these hands will only have partial combos, like AJs and ATs):
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What hands check-raise on the flop and then massively overbet the turn for value?
Turn:
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55, 33, 7s6s, and 7d6d make the most sense, though As2s and Ad2d might be in the mix too. 5c3c and 5h3h would probably make the flop raise, but seem somewhat less likely to make a turn overbet that large (though I think they would take this line some of the time). So perhaps roughly10 or 11 value combinations… So what does equity look like against a variety of ranges?

  • value + 6s3s, 6s4s, 7s4s, 4s3s, 6d5d, As7s, As6s, As4s, As3s: 27.87% equity for QQ
  • all hands above + Jd9d, Jd7d, Td9d, Ts7s, Ts6s: 35.38% equity
  • all hands above + 6d5d, 8s6s, 8d5d, 9s8s, 9s7s, 9s6s: 40.99%

The last bullet is getting somewhat close to break even, but on the whole the call is going to loose money unless the opponent is finding additional, lower equity bluffs, or is dropping some of the value combinations.

Given this, I’d have to say this is an example of my calling where I should have folded (sit at a table with me and you’re likely to find other such examples).

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100

I put him on a straight on the turn, but u played with him and know him and how he plays. Me, i go out but i am cheap lol.

101

AA in the highjack in a 3 handed, 3 bet flop. On the river, I thought even at the time that I needed to fold, but felt I might be priced in, and wandered on over to the call button like a lemming toward a cliff.

Would you call or fold?

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102

My theory on Replay is always toss the aces and play the kings.

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