So as a quick addendum to my comment above - here’s the kind of play that leaves one thinking the cards are juiced:
3 player table again, 15 total hands:
flushes: 4
three of a kind: 2
That’s a lot of strength in a mere 15 hands with only three players at the table. But given the more extensive check of well over 100 hands above, I’d say this is likely an outlier that just does not happen that often - but does happen and is always well remembered. I know that I’m going to remember for a little while how I lost the final two hands: my AQ flush lost to AK flush; then i lost the last hand when four hearts hit the board to give the other guy another flush for the 5h he was holding).
I must say that I’m surprised that you got a reasonable result in so few hands but it’s great that you took the trouble to consider what a reasonable experiment would be, conducted the test and reported the results. I like and appreciate your open-minded approach to this discussion!
If you increase, quite considerably, the number of hands that you deal, you will see more outliers, obviously, and, quite likely, some even more extreme - I can easily imagine three players all holding a straight flush!
You will also observe a good amount of “clumping” where, seemingly, an unreasonable number of good hands are dealt in very close temporal proximity. This will be “offset” at some point by exactly the opposite, but equally “unlikely to our intuition”, unreasonable number of “rubbish” hands.
All that is to say that, over a sufficiently large sample size, we can expect to see a random distribution of all card combinations, some of which we have arbitrarily assigned a “value” greater than other combinations. An interesting follow up experiment, if you are interested in pursuing this further, would be to make up your own definitions of “good” and “bad” hands and start dealing cards and see if you get a similar distribution of good, bad and “outrageous” hands.
Your contribution to this discussion is very much appreciated!
Good luck on the tables, may the PRNGod favour you!
Regards,
TA
Edit: If you’re interested in exploring the probabilities of different hold 'em hands, you might like this webpage:
I just have no words. one must have a crystal ball or is a psychic . what makes this even more improbably is I folded same hand as the winning hand. where can I get a crystal ball or a psychic to tell me to call with trash cards?
Those are the hands than make a person weep. You could have won that one, based on what you stated in your note. You could have lost it too. You folded to last through a few more rounds, a good strategy, generally, in multi-table tourneys when betting goes so high so fast.
but how the heck do these players call? no possible way they could think 2,Q is good here, yet they just jam all in and wow how convenient that 1 of remaining 2’s and 1 of remaining Q’s just so happen to pop up. only way is if they somehow knew. call with stupid crap like this all time and just get rewarded.
You don’t need a crystal ball to know that limping in from middle position with Q2 off and then shoving against a 5.5x open is a terrible play, particularly when it means facing elimination. But lucky plays like this don’t occur more often on Replay because there is something unfair about the mechanics of game. They occurs more often because people on Replay play far more recklessly and thoughtlessly compared to what we see in televised tournaments. It is simple math: if people play these hands with greater frequencies, we are bound to see these hands suck out to a greater amount. It’s the same as buying numerous lottery tickets. Each ticket has the same probability of winning, but the more tickets you buy the more chances you have to win.
When I stay in a hand like this one (instead of playing it wisely as I believe you did), it usually means I’m tired and bored and fed-up and ready to be out. When I actually take the hand (because luck was on my side this time), I feel pretty pumped, but in all honesty I know the truth: I was throwing in the towel, throwing up a prayer, hoping (sort of) to be out. This guy stayed in the hand against good judgment because he just didn’t care if he won or lost that hand. It’s a free roll and it’s nothing to him. You, on the other hand, were there for some serious play, I think. You do get that kind of behavior in free rolls.
I surely didn’t mean to imply you don’t get it in other games, just that you for sure get it in Freerolls. Believe it or not, I actually admire those with the chutzpah to take a gamble on an unlikely hand. I admire it when they win the hand. I smile indulgently when they lose and I think, “You’ll learn.” lol
If you call a multi all in bet with 56 off pre-flop, you will be so busy rebuying you will miss most of the hands.
Of course if you don’t mind paying REAL money to purchase WORTHLESS chips you will make the designers of the site VERY happy.
When I run into a table with a bunch of bingo players, I simply fold or go to a table with adults.
I’m not here to show off, I’m here to relax and learn and the stakes don’t matter because the games the same.
I’ll bet most of those bingo players gloat when they win as if their play had some semblance of talent whole forgetting they have lost 90% of the time because you can’t fake real skill.
The odds will catch up to you sooner or later.
One of the mental problems I had early in playing poker was enormous regret over folds that could have won me the hand. Finally I acknowledged that there was no way I could have known–that no one could have known what would come on the flop, turn, and river. I stopped–consciously–beating myself up over regrettable folds. Rebuys were a good exercise for me: I had the chance to take outrageous chances and ability to get right back in the game. I then saw more of what not folding would most often result in, for me.
I just don’t believe these cards/hands are random. can’t trust any hand I hit. always thinking what can beat me and course they just so happen to have it. flop a straight and they always get their flush. get KK and just so happens there is a ace. etc… can go on forever with this.
Why do you think the cards aren’t random? If its because you have bad beats that means literally nothing. Bad beats are commonplace, and a lot of time the player who has the bad beat on them attempted to slowplay or bet too small giving the other player the right odds to call and draw out. If you min bet 30 into a 1000 dollar pot with a set and there are 3 to a flush, expect the guy with a flush draw to call and draw out on you. (I’m not saying you do this, I’m just saying some players on this site do)That is not his fault or the cards fault.
And with that Q2 hand, some players get tired of playing and they want a big stack or leave the tournament. Q2 has slightly less than 10% equity. So itll happen occasionally. Why would replay want it to happen more than 10% of the time? Replay wants their players to play normal poker, they have no reason to want players to shove with Q2. It is quite obvious that good players will win, and bad players will struggle. If you look at yorunoname’s comparing simple strategies forum you will see that you can consistently win money on replay by playing a fundamentally strong strategy. And always remember volume cures variance!
ok so why is there a ACE on table every time I get KK? you can also put in any pocket pair
why is there always multiple pocket pairs? yet I take real deck and rarely does a pocket pair show up, let alone multiple pocket pair
where are the aces when I need one? yet my opponents get one when they need it.
why do I get cards that were previously on board? 2 J’s on board, next hand I’ll get at least a J in my hand?
why playing on 2 tables does my cards show up on the other table? 1 table I’ll be suited, on the other table that 3 of same suit as mine pops up.
after seeing a flop, I can guess what’s goin on, but with a real deck can’t guess right at all? actually can guess right preflop when I got a pocket pair, someone else have one too, if not more.
why do I miss my straight and flush draws when I chase, yet soon as I fold it hits, yet my opponents hit theirs when they chase against me?
I would like you to keep track of the next 15 times you get pocket kings and see how many times an ace comes. This is just an example any of your examples could work, but I think if you actually wrote down all the times that it happens things may not be as bad as you think in your head. Its just a suggestion, but I would say that if the next 15 times you get kings an ace comes on the flop (in NLHE) that you are right. There is probably cheating. But there is no cheating, and you will not get an ace on the next 15 flops you have pocket kings.
Ok I’ll change my statement, if there is an ace on the board or an opponent has pocket aces then next 15 times you have pocket kings then yes, the cards are not random.
Believe it or not, I actually admire those with the chutzpah to take a gamble on an unlikely hand. I admire it when they win the hand. I smile indulgently when they lose and I think, “You’ll learn.” lol