As I’ve stated before I’ve noticed the exact same things.
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We need at least 100,000 hands to start to draw reasonable conclusions.
@wildpokerdude, if you have a sufficiently large number of decks, such as the replay engine has, you would have no trouble replicating these results and many more, far more unlikely events.
@smooth99, from the Wikipedia page on “Poker Probability”, the odds of 4 of a kind in a 7 card game such as Texas Hold 'Em is 1:594.
The question is, then, how many quads were dealt in the subsequent 500 hands? If quads continued at the frequency that you quote, it seems reasonable that we could question the algorithm. From such a small sample size, I would only be motivated to keep on recording data. The sample size does not allow any conclusions to be reached.
I’m sorry to repeat myself, we are talking about massive numbers of hands being dealt and so we need what you might think are unreasonably high amounts of data before we can draw any statistically significant conclusions.
Hope this helps.
Regards,
TA
don’t discuss with me, you didn’t want too.
Thanks but my Google search comes up with:
Four of a kind 224,848 0.168%
and the same using wikipedia
Wildpokerdude, I’m not sure how to take your response to theanalyst01 since this is a forum. I thought we’re just discussing our view points.
I sent you friends request smooth.
It’s a pleasure to have this discussion with someone who takes the time to do some fact checking.
I think that you might be misreading the figures presented. The number that you quoted, 224,848 is the frequency of the hand. “Frequency is the number of ways to draw the hand, including the same card values in different suits.”.
If you look at the column further right, with the heading “Odds against”, I think you will find what you are looking for 
Regards,
TA
so why can I predicate right on here, but I take a deck cards and never guess right?
If you are able to predict so accurately, surely you wouldn’t be complaining here and on your profile page about getting “screwed over”?
With the predictive power of your hypothesis, you should be cleaning up here and challenging the top 10 ranked players.
If you are going to quote me, please be sure to keep it accurate and reflective of my intent.
Regards,
TA
I’ve stated before that same stuff happens over and over and have made folds based off of these repeating things. I flop a straight and there is a flush draw, I can’t do anything with it because a player is on that said flush draw and program will give it to them every time.
same when I get KK. every time a ace pops up and I know any ace hand gets played. why is there always a ace? but where are the aces when I’m goin up against KK with my Ax hand that seems a bit suspicious to me.
I don’t know how many times I’ve been all in and got called and said player gonna get this card screw me over and sure as heck, they get it.
I have mention I have folded hands preflop cause of that feeling that something is up and not right. have done it on flop, turn and river.
Thanks, I had misunderstood the frequency term.
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The programme has less to do with it than you seem to think 
A flush draw has about 35% chance of completing on or before the river in the long run. If your luck is running bad, an opponent completing their flush 50% or more of the time would not be unusual. I certainly wouldn’t expect to see this over a large data set but over, say, 200 or 300 hands I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see results like that.
If you have hit the straight on the flop, all you can do is get your chips in to the good, hold on and hope! If you’re going to value bet, I’d suggest not less than 3/4 pot which comfortably gives your opponent the wrong odds to continue. Depending on the game and relative stack sizes, you might want to shove if you’ve got the high end of the straight. The obvious problem with shoving if you have less than the nuts straight is that you can be outdrawn by a better straight as well as the flush.
WPD, I really do understand some of your frustration. It is infuriating to me when I shove preflop with AA and some clown calls me with, say, T7s and takes the pot. Really? What on earth was the person doing calling a shove with a hand like that?
When that happens, I widen my shoving range lol … I might have previously been set mining with TT but, against a clown who will call a shove with what looks like any two cards, I’m going to start jamming TT and take his stack!
Poker is a game of long term results. You can and probably will get aces cracked 3 or 4 times in a row in the short term but that doesn’t mean you should fold aces preflop.
I understand how these things look and feel “suspicious”. Our minds just aren’t “natively” equipped to deal with the range of probabilities that we have to deal with when playing poker. We don’t look at the cliff and consider that we have 5:1 odds of surviving if we jump! We calculate far more binary: can I die if I jump? “Yes” or “No”!
There’s hundreds of webpages out there that discuss poker odds. If you aren’t familiar with some of them, it would be well worth your time to have a bit of a read.
It is worth emphasising the point that @JoeDirk made: every poker site, real money and free chips, has a thread exactly the same as this. People get on a long losing streak even though they’re playing really well and, without a decent understanding of the maths of poker, start to wonder if the algorithm is really random.
Please understand that: every single site that exists has exactly the same comments and questions.
Hope this helps
Regards,
TA
nobody has been able to answer my question as to why can guess right a good majority of the time on here, but I take a real deck and rarely guess right at all. I’ll use a hand that I was in as a example.
I have a straight draw and needed a 3 to get it. there was also a heart flush draw on board. before it got to river, I told myself watch it be the 3 heart to give me my straight and someone the heart flush. well what a surprise the 3 of heart hit the river and as I predicted it gave me the straight and course someone was suited with hearts.
or why so many pocket pairs on one hand and I take a real deck and deal 9 handed and hardly any pocket pairs pop up.
Looking at the various ways you have asked this question in this thread leads me to think that you are only remembering the times that you have been right about your losing hand. When I make “predictions” about, say, the 3h coming on the turn it’s more along the lines of “any 3 except a heart gives me the pot”. It is very easy to take that thought and remember it as “I knew it would be 3h”.
I’m not at all claiming that is what you are doing, I am using my own thought processes as an example of how I misremember what I was thinking in a particular hand.
The thing is, if I assume that you didn’t buy your way to your current bankroll, your “predictive” power seems to be more aligned with winning hands than losing hands
Keep up the good work and just laugh when the clowns take your chips: you’re doing well and will have your revenge in time!
Regarding pocket pairs: you won’t achieve what you want by dealing to yourself with a real deck. If you or a friend have some programming ability, it wouldn’t be difficult to write a small programme to deal 9-handed hole cards. The statistics that you want to keep track of are, of course, how often the different numbers of pocket pairs are dealt: one pp in the round, 2 pp, 3 pp … 9pp.
Many newer computers have a hardware true random number generator and nearly all operating systems have a pseudo random number generator that is seeded and re-seeded periodically by some true random event such as milliseconds elapsed since the mouse button was activated.
I imagine it would take only a few minutes, at most, to simulate 1 million hands. Failing that, you can search the internet; I have every confidence that someone has done the calculations!
Regards,
TA
but it doesn’t have to be a particular card and suit. I can say well here comes a club and boom there is a club. I can say here comes a ace and sure ace pop up. I am suited and here comes the wrong suit and sure it flops the wrong suit. bottom line is these cards shouldn’t be as predictable.
I just can’t trust any hand on here. heck, I’m more shocked when a hand actually does hold up and win vs when it loses. there is no shock value when I lose a hand.
I don’t see anything particularly special in your claim. What you’re telling me is that, based on your hole cards and whatever is on the board, you have learned, through experience, that certain results are more likely than others.
This is exactly what the top players do as well! They put a lot more time into studying the maths of poker than most of us but it is all about gauging probabilities.
You seem to be winning significantly more than you are losing so the best advice I can give you is to forget what you think are anomalies in the PRNG and keep on doing what you’re doing!
Regards,
TA
just don’t think understand at all I’m saying.
It is all in your head. Seriously. If you you know what card is going to come then you should win. Don’t bet if your suit isn’t going to come. Fold if you know your straight is going to beaten by a flush. That isn’t going to work because that’s not how poker works. But if you claim to be able to predict the pattern of the cards (which mostly seem to go against you) then you should be able to use that to your advantage.
There are 4 suits, so if your cards are suited and two cards of the same suit flop there’s a good chance they’ll be from one of the other suits. You’ll only flop a flush draw about 10% of the time.
its not in my head, I do use it to my advantage. when it happens over and over and over and over … what I am trying to get at is random things cant be predictable. these cards are so predictable. I can’t do this with a real deck.
Already posted my thoughts on this. Still feel it’s designed to make the unlikely more likely. My win’s feel just as false as my loses. But anyway, whatever it is, there ARE glitches that happen TOO frequently. Had pocket aces, never raised just called, and one other guy did the same. A,10,7,8,3 hits the table. Other guy wins with 2 pair, aces and tens…explain that one to me…lol (Initial guy placing bets had 10,7).
Very easy to explain. Run these hands through an odds calculator. For example, preflop the odds of winning are as follows: AA versus AT suited and T7 suited has about a 70% chance of winning. Conversely, you will lose this hand about 30% of the time over the long-run (i.e., across many thousands of hands that are the same). Your chances of winning will, of course, improve if your opponents hands were not suited (you did not provide that information, so I went with the worst case scenario for illustrative purposes). The player with AT had between a 4-11% chance of winning, depending on whether his/her cards were suited or unsuited and whether the T7 was suited or unsuited. While winning with this hand is unlikely, it is not a glitch. Nor is it a glitch that you were dealt AA and another player was dealt AT.
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