The fairness debate

Suggestions & Feedback
2353

You’re quite right, it shouldn’t be every time and I’d wager cold, hard, cash that it doesn’t happen to you or anyone else every time.

It’s not at all unusual for there to be 2 people or even 3 people getting dealt pocket pairs in the same hand. It’s also not at all unusual for someone else, in that same hand, to get dealt 2 suited cards.

If you just limp in with pocket 5, for example, and someone limps in with 93s don’t be surprised if you hit your set on the flop and they complete their flush on the turn or river … they have 1/4 of the deck as outs to complete their hand!

You need to learn how to read the board, make appropriately sized bets pre and post-flop and read other players. Limping with every hand and slow playing when you hit the flop, which is what I suspect you are doing, will nearly always end badly for you.

You are, of course, welcome to wonder and consider any and all of the wonderful things in the universe but, if I were you, I wouldn’t lose any sleep wondering about the legitimacy of RP. You are considering things that have quite a reasonable probability of happening purely by chance. In a world of 8 billion people, it would be most unusual if something with a probability of 1 in 8 billion didn’t happen, on average, every single day!

On this site, with thousands of hands per hour being dealt, you are going to see what you think is very unusual behaviour very frequently. The behaviour is not unusual or unexpected to mathematicians but, to people like you and me, it’s really difficult to understand that something with 1/1000 chance will happen many times per hour here.

Just enjoy the game and, if it interests you, put some time in to learn more about the different strategies that will help you win more chips, more often. There’s quite a few, very good, discussions here on Replay and massive amounts of totally free information on the rest of the internet.

Good luck on the tables!

Regards,
TA

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2354

I’d wager to bet different :rofl:. But anyway was just curious if it was happening to anyone else. Don’t matter if I try to fast play my good cards or try to sneak or limp them thru…seems that “f” card always falls. It’s just a matter of if the right person still playing at showdown still there to benefit from it. And as no one on any of these poker sites seems to want to fold or will just raise any bet you make regardless of what’s in their hand…and that magic one or two cards that can screw you is always the card that pops up…you’re like WTH… :roll_eyes:. All in all, still doing ok…just seems odd to me :laughing:. I’ll pray to the Poker God’s a little bit harder… :laughing:

2355

yes it happens to me as well. I can’t do anything with pocket kings because its going up against any Ax hand, and every time a ace pops up on board. how can a ace just pop up every time I got king? if a ace doesn’t hit the board, well they got pocket aces, so they trick you into thinking kings are good because there’s no ace on board.

2356

so why don’t I see multiple pocket pairs when I deal out hands with a real deck? matter of fact hardly any pocket pairs show up when I deal out a 9 handed hand.

2357

Please let me know when you can deal thousands of hands per hour and observe every event.

It really does happen to you but, at the rate of 20 hands per hour, it is so slow that you don’t and probably can’t notice it. Random events in “fast forward” bewilder all of us. I don’t think you understand the difference between dealing 20 hands per hour on a single table and dealing 60+ hands per hour on 100+ tables.

So I’m guessing that you are playing with friends and no hand is ever mucked? At the end of the round, I’m guessing, everyone turns their folded cards face up?

If that is not the case then you have no idea at all how many pocket pairs were dealt and folded. I mostly raise JJ+ but it’s not at all unusual for me to limp or call a raise. I have no idea how many times, other than “many times”, I have folded (and mucked!) AA or KK post-flop. There are, obviously, many, many occasions where I fold pocket pairs pre-flop as well as playing to the turn or river before I fold my pocket pairs and send them, always, to the muck pile.

However, your bankroll puts the lie to your words. You joined, apparently, in 2018 and, since then (I’m guessing), have never bought a chip. You have a bankroll that has gone from the initial 2500 through to 7 million. I find it hard to believe that you could do that with so much bad luck and every good hand gets beat every time.

I appreciate the discussion and I’m happy to discuss the maths of random numbers. I am not prepared to engage with anyone who promulgates “Replay is rigged” ideas. The only exception to that would be someone who has, given the dealing rate, some 2 or 3 million hands that show a clear bias.

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2358

I just take a real deck and just deal 9 handed and flip cards over. pick cards up, shuffle and repeat…

a lot my chips come from winning contest and few promotions. recently I was gonna go to a ring table and just go all in till I lost all chips and got couple of million

2359

you not dealing with 1,000s of hands at once. you are at one table, one deck of cards.
if online tourney takes 1.5 hour to play and took 300 hands and a live tourney that took 4hrs but also took 300 hands to play. you should still see about the same results.

2360

Please send me a friend request and let me know when you want to do that. It may take some time but I’m sure that I will help you with your problem of rigged tables and too many chips!

2361

:rofl: nope, but would like to continue this discussion

2362

Thanks but I don’t see any discussion to continue with.

The tables are highly rigged in favour of people who know what they’re doing. That is nothing to do with Replay! Every poker table, real life and internet, has exactly the same bias!

Good players understand variance and randomness and they win.

Bad players believe that their pocket 2s that hit a set on the flop are guaranteed to win. They are also going to lose far more often than they think is possible.

Regards,
TA

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2363

No, I’m sorry, that isn’t true.

Any single event is statistically meaningless no matter how outrageous the result is.

What I would expect, over many, many thousands of hands, is that the cards dealt will meaningfully approach a random distribution.

You, and I, are single, independent, observers of a small subset of those thousands and thousands of hands. Do we detect, individually, apparent statistical anomalies? Of course we do! Does our observation make our perception truth? Not at all!

I can count using my fingers and toes and I have some familiarity with big numbers like 100 and thousands and millions. I’m not sure that I know what they mean but I can talk confidently like I do know :slight_smile:

Show me the data and I will show you the truth :slight_smile:

Good luck on the tables!

Regards,
TA

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2364

you don’t want to continue on this discussion

2365

Wildpokerdude…yeah that KK always fighting AA…drives me up the wall too. But anyway, I look at my chip stack, and even it makes me wonder. If it was this easy to make 100k, for any of us, then none of us would ever hold a real job again! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: Were I live, no matter which direction I go, within 20 minutes I’m at a casino. Spend quite a bit time in them. I win sometimes, I lose sometimes. But some things just feel “false” online. I’ve already had 5 or 6 str8 flushes on this site, even lost with one, about 2 months time. I’ve never seen one for myself in real life in my 50 plus years… :roll_eyes:

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2366

yup sure does

2367

Sorry, that came across as a bit harsh which was not my intent!

I’m happy to continue with the discussion but I’m not sure where it’s going now :slight_smile:

I start with the assumption that Replay is totally fair and random. I’m open to be persuaded otherwise but, before we get into the actual mechanics of implementation, I need to see a coherent and logical argument of the benefit to Replay if they were to have some form of bias.

Replay makes money by selling chips; that, as far as I know, is their only meaningful source of income. Any bias in the game must work to increase revenue.

As I said earlier, I have seen arguments from people who do buy or have bought chips that the game is rigged against them so that they “have to” keep buying chips. This bias, if it were to exist, is remarkably easy to exploit - stop buying chips! By refusing to buy chips, you have to be included on the “winning” side of the algorithm!

However, I have seen what I believe to be an equal number of people who have never bought chips who also claim that their “luck” is so impossibly bad that Replay is biased in favour of people who do buy chips.

It is not possible for both sides to be correct in their conclusions.

I have a personal example of a statistically unlikely event: A royal flush has a likelihood of occurring once in every 649,739 hands. I have played a little less than 100,000 hands here so getting a royal flush is unlikely in so few hands played but not at all suspicious.

As it happens, though, in those 100,000 hands I have had 3 royal flushes! One of those occurred at a time when I was occasionally buying chips and the other two occurred some time after my last chip purchase. To add to the statistical anomaly “evidence”, I have also been dealt 5 straight flushes in those same 100,000 hands!

Although I seem to have been lucky, and I believe that I have been lucky, my bankroll, sadly, does not show the benefits of this luck! If I looked at those hands and started to believe that Replay, for their own good reasons, truly favoured me, I would put every chip I have on the highest stakes table I could play and start multiplying my bankroll in exponential fashion!

I don’t believe that I am so favoured and I have discovered, painfully!, that playing above my bankroll needs far more skill than luck!

Which brings me back to where I started: Replay is, in fact, very heavily biased in favour of those who put in the time and effort to study the game and improve their skills.

Regards,
TA

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2368

Well seems I just played you. See what I mean. That just had that “false” feel at the end. Played for hours, not necessarily eating up the table, but mostly holding steady, then all of a sudden I can’t lose. “False” feels “False” whether it’s for or against me. Don’t feel site is particularly rigged to make any particular person or group win or lose. If anything, seems and feels more rigged to try to make more exciting play. Making improbable’s more probable. Just my take on it.

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2369

It’s also really easy to remember the great hands that you bet big and lost, but forget the crap hands you lucked out on winning. No matter how many hands you play, the number of hands being played is enormous. I got quads twice in one MTT the other night, but the rest of my hands were good starting hands that lost or bad hands I folded, that would have won, lol. I’ve seen straight flushes and more in live play. Just like at Replay, if you play enough hands live, you see everything. When I lose big, I can usually find a flaw in my own play that allowed the player to beat me, sometimes random luck is the culprit. There is always a certain percentage of the time that even the best starting hands get beat :slight_smile: Just part of the game.

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2370

I made a post somewhere else, that since the change to the new format, there appeared seemed to be a change in the random number (generator??). I was seeing too many quads and str8 flushes than I would’ve expected in the very short time frame after the change and I always play the odds (but I’m very bad at math).

I posted it, hoping that the random number generator would be reviewed. That’s all. I wasn’t thinking of anything nefarious was going on. I still see a lot of quads etc., but not as frequently as before.

BTW, I just play for the fun on here, unless I have a really good hand THEN it becomes a feeding frenzy.

2371

This probably will be deleted promptly, so read fast…I mean…we can’t have dissidents like me protesting freely on here right? LOL haha

But I will not now or never ever again pay for chips on here.

I know that they probably get bad losers who then go to complaining about the program cheating them. I’ve even had the experience on here to have someone across the table, no doubt probably with too many pints in them, get mad and blame another player or me for “cheating” as if you could on here somehow cheat? Only one entity has the power or forthwith to stack the deck.

I am not a bad loser, and laugh most times when I get a sly hand played against me, from a worthy opponent.

But as I have played here for quite some time, I have come to realize something about how their “engine” goes fishing for people, to play them out and get them to needing more and spending more for chips.

There are odds to any poker hand, and we all know that the “house” has better odds than the players, but then, this isn’t an issue of the house winning out against a player.

But on any given hand on any given day, what are the odds that two players in the same hand had both come up with “4 of a kind” at the same time. And how often do you see it in “Omaha Hi-Lo” where you get dealt three 9’s in a hand of four cards, twice in a row?

I know, a person can claim the possibilities are surmount-ous (is that a word?), but…too many times the odd hand and you can start betting that its stacked and not mere chance.

I have played enough poker to be able to tell when the engine is programmed to deal out the cards in a specific pattern, to up the chances for one player over another, or lower the chances on a specific player, beyond the “having a bad luck night” deal.

I know they will never admit to it, and I know they have the answers rehearsed, but I will play out my run here until the chips diminish and then go play somewhere else where the deck isn’t stacked against you, if that’s even possible.

It’s odd, for I thought this site had a winning interface, best site scenario and had everything going for them without having to do a “Trump” and poison the deck against themselves. But greed befouls a many man, and they are no different I guess than the rest of the best.

But I really truly had a feeling that these guys would not cut their own throats (proverbial mind you) by stacking the deck in their favor. I mean, they are making a good fair bundle in selling chips especially when they have specials, but they have lost this one on me, to a bad choice merely for greed.

I’m sure this will not start a mad rush for the exit door, but just keep it in mind and keep a trained eye peeled for that funny odd hand that you’re sure would have never been played out on a live table, or too many of those hand against odds of unbelievable chances. They’re there, you just have to have a keen eye peeled mates, and of course the patience any poker player has to naturally have.

2372

more times than not, I can sense something is up when I’m playing. I can fold hands that a lot of players can’t .
I had a player get mad at me once. I had AK, there was a lot of action going on before it got to me. I said to myself something is going on and folded. there was ace on flop, but A8 hits 2 pairs. after the hand was over, I said thank goodness I folded AK. player was like how can you fold AK preflop? I said I sense something was not right and folded. he went on and on how I can’t fold AK preflop. I finally said that I would had busted out if I had called.

I use these patterns to my advantage though and make it further into tournaments than anyone else who doesn’t recognize these patterns.

I folded QQ once. player to my left was short stacked and first to act. he did a min raise and I was gonna bump it up to a all in call. next thing I know big stack made a huge reraise which basically put me at risk. I folded and on flop was a Q, I was fuming for folding, but as it turned out big stack had AK and hit the back door flush and again I would had busted out. because I folded I made it to payouts.

its hard to explain, but lot times I thinking should call, but then I get feeling something is wrong and I fold.

when I sense something is not right, I just simply fold.

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