The truth is that a random number generator will not and can not match normal sequences in a real world distribution. However, the differences in the distribution would not be perceptible without analysis of an inordinate number of hands. Players on replay play emotionally, the whole table generally gets looser after big pots, and so big pots tend to occur back to back. People also limp 2-3x more than they would in money poker, they call wider with draws, and they’re more willing to “flip” with bad odds. Also as Younguru noted, confirmation bias, and when you combine that with all of these factors you end up with an intuition that not only is that this must be different from normal poker, but that its undeniably so. The play dynamics on the site combined with human psychology make it so that everyone will feel this way, even if they know it isn’t true.
I’d need an adult diaper too if I was in a spot where I would consider folding AA pre. : P
Let’s imagine we’re on the button in 3rd place with AA, and the chip leader and the 2nd place in chips have called each other’s shoves, and we get a 3rd caller. Now at best we have about 40 pct equity. Our pay jump is worth a lot here, lets say its a 9 handed table and were getting +20 pct payout with no risk of busting out, and the tournament does not have a top heavy payout structure. If 1st and 2nd are close in chips that’s almost a 100 pct chance that we receive a large pay jump, with no risk. This could be an ICM win. I’m not even sure it is, but there definitely are scenarios where its true. Would I ever fold AA in any spot? Hell no.
Good lol-why even play then if going 2-fold the BEST starting hand:). why not try n knock ppl. out if the bubble so u get in the money n maybe move higher high up–playing scared is not the way 2 go my friend.
NOW you’re making a lot of sense-EXACTLY.
Ok, muck your pocket Aces-you’re not playing 2 win then:(
Call me racist, but I’ve never seen a turtle that color before. 
Absolutely, if you do not want to be bubble boy and it is that point of the tourny where one more has to go then you are in the money. People forget you have been playing for days up to that point and AA get cracked often. If you played them and they got cracked I bet you would rethink you decision. Heads up you are 81% and if a third enters now you are 65%. Fold.
It is not better if everyone calls because at a nine handed table your AA will likely lose more than win. Do the math… heads up AA are 81%, against 2 opponents they drop to 65% and it gets worse when more enter the pot.
That’s correct for equity (chances of winning the pot), but not your EV (how much you can expect to win each hand).
Your numbers are pretty pessimistic too - your odds would only be that bad against an extremely tight calling range (QQ+, AKs). Against that range your equity doesn’t really go down with more callers, because it becomes near impossible for anyone to hit a set. It would actually be impossible to get 8 callers - there’s not enough A’s K’s & Q’s in the deck.
If you were to actually get 8 callers, it’s fair to assume ranges would be pretty wide, and you have significantly more equity in that case.
In any case, if you do the EV calculation instead of just looking at equity, more callers is indeed better.
An interesting link with Jonathan Little Poker Pro - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdSQBstV9CM
Here’s a funny little spot that would be GREAT for tv, and a novelty I think most players would enjoy doing/seeing a few times. The following is an edited transcript of gpt-01 writing a ruleset based on my instructions.
Rule: Pocket Aces Pre-Shove Reveal (with Equity Check Exception)
- Eligibility:
Applies any time a player holds pocket aces pre-flop, when action is on them, with at least one other player yet to act. - Action Sequence:
a. At any point on their pre-flop decision, the player may optionally reveal both hole cards face-up (showing AA).
b. The player must reveal both aces in one fluid motion; any other exposure is a rules violation.
c. Immediately after the reveal, proceed to the Equity Check. - Equity Check:
a. With AA exposed, the dealer or floor conducts an equity check to verify that no possible hand could call profitably, given:
The current pot size,
Number of players already in the pot, and
Number of players left to act. b. Outcomes:
Pass: If no hand meets break-even equity versus AA, the player may then declare and
complete an all-in by pushing their full remaining stack into the pot.
Fail: If any hand could call profitably (a fairly rare scenario), the player:- Folds the hand immediately, and
- Posts 1/4 of their remaining stack into the pot as a penalty.
- Limitations:
Only pocket aces may be revealed; no other holdings or partial reveals are permitted. - Enforcement:
Dealers and floor staff confirm the reveal, conduct the equity check, and enforce outcomes on the spot.
Any disputes are resolved by the Tournament Director; penalties for violations are applied as prescribed.
This is what happens to me way more often than I get it: Log In · Get into our Poker Games - Replay Poker
Is bankroll how much money we have (like in the bank, our house, 401k etc. ) or how much money we have that day at casino—just curious:)
Ok, that was a bad beat n then some -but it is a fun free site n no money gone-------Yesterday, i played a small cash game of Omah for only the third time ( online ) as i just learned it HERE on re-play last year-----A guy had quads and i beat him with a river straight flush—it happens, this guy called me more dirty words then even i know:)..
Bring em in with lots of winning, after they are hooked, strip their stack, in hope of them buying chips. Come on man, it’s good business sense. 