Probability in relation to the number of players at the table

Replay Poker Poker Strategy
21

I have a story how I once played AA and KK from UTG.

First about KK from UTG. I min raised and UTG+1 and HIJACK call’s (very loose players) the flop comes with an Ace. Both of them had an Ace. One A3 off another A6 off. I had to fold KK. And when they found out that I folded KK they said to me that I played this hand wrong and I had to make at list 6bb or even 10bb to make them fold. I listened to their advice and next story about two times me having AA on UTG. two times I raised it to 4bb with other players(not htis two lose ones) and 2 times I got everyone folded. So II didn’t have good earnings. So my conclusion - raising big on UTG make everyone knows what type of hands you have and everething depends of peoplee you play with.

22

This is amazing critic. I love that. Make us think about more factors in the game. Many times I make same mistake, when nitty players make 2.5 blind before me and i have 18-20bb and he has a bit more or same I jam any 10s+ AQ+ and always get called by him. And he has AK+ JJ+. And more often I didn’t got lucky))

23

The goal of pre-flop betting (assuming normal stack depths) is ALWAYS isolation. We do this with a proper pre-flop bet sizing. On Replay that is usually between 3x and 5x + a bit more for the number of limpers that have inflated the pot before you. If I am early or mid position I also like to sometimes add another bb to my pre raise to keep people calling behind and putting me out-of-position.

What is isolation? Isolation is making enough people fold so that you can play post-flop sensibly. It is very difficult to play 4-5-6-handed post-flop. There are just too many ways to lose, too many ways that someone can get lucky and suck you out when a 2 on the river gives them 3-of-a-kind or some crap. So we bet a good size, not a crazy huge size, a good size that makes everyone fold pre-flop except for 1 or maybe 2 Villains. ALWAYS (unless ICM or weird stack sizes).

We do not want to limp or slow play because then we will have too many Villains on the flop. AA has a 86% chance to win heads-up but only a 44% chance to win 4-handed (3 Villains). So we bet 3x or 4x or 5x or maybe 6x, depends on the table the opponents, the stacks and usually this will get us 1 or 2 callers. Sometimes more, sometimes none, it’s never perfect but as often as possible.

We only slow play monster hands, nuts or near nuts. AA is not a monster (yet) and still won’t be a monster if it doesn’t hit the board - and AA is the best hand you can have before the flop so we never have a monster (yet) before flop so we never slow play pre-flop, see? We can slow play nut flush, we can slow play full house, on drier boards we can slow play a set or maybe even 2 pair. We would never slow play a pair post flop so why would we slow play pre, and AA is only a pair, see?

We do not want to shove all-in AA, KK etc because all of the okay, so-so hands that we want to call will just fold and we will make no money with our awesome hand. Also, if we shove KK the only hands that will call will be stuff that might beat us like AA, AK, AKs, AQ, AQs etc and we could be in trouble. If we have AA, KK etc, we want QJo, JTs to call, stuff like that. If we go all-in they won’t call.

Of course if we are short stacked and have 12bb, 10bb, 8bb or less, oh yes we go all-in yes yes yes. Every time. That is different.

So for probability of wijning with number of opponents, we see that AA wins heads-up 86%, but 4-handed only 44%. Just imagine how bad a hand like JTs which probably wins 55ish% heads-up will win 4-handed, like maybe 30ish% ? So we want isolation.

But we hear, if you are strong, you gotta get the money in. You gotta get people to call you. That is POST-flop. Not pre-flop. We are never strong enough pre-flop to ‘get the money in’ because the best hand that we can have pre is only a pair. It’s not strong enough (yet), see?

So, good cards pre-flop, we want isolation. Hit strong post-flop, THEN get the money in. There is more to it than that given different situations, but if you are a beginner, this is the basic basics.

24

No, it isn’t. The point of isolation raising is not to get a hand heads up. It’s about getting a hand heads up against a specific player. eg If a fish has limped in, but a good player is yet to act, you’d want to use a large size because you don’t want to give the good player a price and position. If considerations like that don’t apply, your preflop strategy should not revolve around isolation.

Not sure where you got 44% from, it’s more than that, but even using that figure, 44 * 3 > 86 * 1 and 30 * 3 > 55.

Betting a size that generates folds and building the biggest pot possible are not mutually exclusive though. In fact, there often the same thing. Sure, you can min raise and get everyone to call, but if you can raise to 10bb and still get 2 callers on average, then you’re obviously much better off with the second approach.

Really what you want is to maximize the value of the pot size * your equity. Your equity goes down the more callers you get, but rarely by the same amount the pot size increases. There’s obviously a balance to be struck here, but saying beginners should be focused on isolation is just wrong IMHO.

The important thing for beginners is not to let everyone into the pot for cheap, because then you are decreasing your equity without building the pot, and that will almost always end in tears.

25

Every exploitative coach teaching new players how to play low and micro stakes harps this. Thin the herd, it’s easier to play. I’m sure that Ivey and Negreanu know how to get the money in pre-flop in the right spot. Stuff beyond my comprehension. That is why I said that there is more to it but for beginners this is the first big step for learning pre-flop. It does not matter what 2 cards you have. If you have a strong hand pre, open properly and “aim for 1 caller.” Fold your non strong hands pre and do not limp.

Why is this? Because too many new players do not understand 2 things:

1 ~ If you jam AA (or similarly strong hand) you won’t get called and you will throw away piles of winnings.
2 ~ If you limp AA (or similarly strong hand) you will get sucked out. tilt and accuse the game of getting rigged.

AA 44% 4-handed comes straight from exploitation master blackrain79. Those are his numbers and he shows the screenshot of it in his odds calculator. And all we need for the lesson is a ballpark number anyways.

Maximizing value to equity is too complicated for beginners. Heck, it’s too complicated for ME. Just size up enough to aim for 1 caller every time. If you are playing these stakes trying to exploit weak players, almost any player at the table that you can get heads-up with is isolation against a fish or semi-fish.

26

I just don’t think that’s right. Multi-way pots are often easier to play, because everyone in the hand is strongly incentivized to play very straight forwardly. You’ll for sure have less equity, but you’ll realize that equity fairly well, and the pot is bigger. That does mean is much more difficult to exercise any skill edge post flop, because we’re to play straight forwardly too, so I guess it depends how beginner we’re talking.

Anyway, trying to find the size that gets one or two callers is probably going to do a decent job of maximizing value. The problem is that opponents just aren’t anywhere near as elastic as they should be, so to fold out enough players you have to go so big that you’re now only up against really strong hands, and you can hardly open anything profitably. That’s terrible for beginners because now they start splitting their range (likely limping most hands and only raising their premiums).

If you’re thinking to yourself, what size should only get called by one or two players, that’s probably a really useful heuristic.
If you’re trying to find the size that actually only gets called by one or two players, I think that does more harm than good.

(It’s also worth considering that if you size up too much, you will basically never get raised, and or strongest hands lose value when this doesn’t happen)

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27

With a large table ( 9 players) you do NOT want to slow play AA and let half the table chase you…Put a BIG raise in pre-flop, i cannot count the MANY times i lost with AA:).

28

Hi
So many comments and so many opinions. It’s actually a great theme for everyone.: for both beginners and experienced players. But we will never get a correct answer regarding our actions until we study our rivals. In general, the idea itself is very good, since our task is to get the maximum benefit by entering the pot or to fold our hand with minimal losses. The listed pocket cards are very good for fighting for the pot, and a raise would be a great solution, unlike an All-in, even if you have a pocket pair of AA, because even the best pocket pair, in our opinion, can turn into garbage after opening the flop, turn and river. By increasing, we can increase our chances of winning by forcing some players to fold, the main thing is not to become a victim of our own game, because sometimes it’s so hard to fold AA, KK or QQ.

29

I think that the most important factor in this BY FAR is how good of a player you are.

If you are Phil Ivey, and you know the math odds in any situation in the blink of an eye, and you have the best skills at the table, and you can read everybody else at a high level, and you feel that you can take AA to a 5-handed flop and still have strong odds to win, then yes, go for it, keep everyone in as long as possible and build the pot that you want.

However, the vast majority of players on Replay and reading this forum are fish and borderline fish. There are only a handful of players here who have some sense of optimal play. Furthermore, anyone on this forum reading this to get some advice and learn something is a lower level player (I include myself here). For all of us, the most profitable sensible thing to do is to thin the herd pre-flop and aim for 1 or 2 callers every time. We don’t read the boards all that well. We don’t range our opponents perfectly (and some of our call station opponents are in fact quite unrangeable anyways). We don’t know all the math odds and how they can change drastically with one nasty turn card. It is best for us to keep it simple and make people fold pre-flop, no matter what two decent cards we have. If we decide to open the action, we size our bets to get one or two callers every time.

Now this can be difficult to do in ring games for play money but in tournaments it works quite well. Don’t outsmart yourself. Thin the herd. Aim for one caller (or two callers tops).

30

I think for advanced players, 3 callers is ok. So I aim for 1,2,3 callers. Also I have found that you usually get 1 more caller then you aim for. So if you Aim for 1,2 callers, you’ll probably get 3 callers. If you Aim for 2,3 callers, you will probably get 4 callers.

For that reason, its also important to learn how to play when you bet the right size to get the right 1,2,3 callers, and instead get 1,2 more callers then you wanted.

I’m not scared of 3,4 callers, because I can usually semi handrange them, know whats a good board for my range and their wide range, and can win hands, pots with bottom pair, mid pair, draws, semi bluffs, etc, and can escape from weaker top pairs, mid pairs, bottom pairs, draws, and I can still make right calls, folds, bets, etc, and can still exploit, semi GTO them, capitalize on their mistakes, make less mistakes, know the math, odds, etc.

But thats for just players like me, and Aiming, getting 1,2,3 players is the right way for most to almost all players, and is something that even players as good as Younguru, Lihuie, me, others strive for most of time, not because we cant handle more callers, but because less callers is easier, better, usually, most of the time.

There are exceptions tho.