Hand analysis. #1

As part of a new initiative, I am going to ask the boards indulgence and post some hands (some invented and some from memory) which I hope are interesting enough to get some feedback about strategy and thought process in fairly common situations.

They will be mostly basic, at least to start with. About one a week throughout the summer.

I can do requests. Let me know if you would like to see Hold’em, Omaha or Omaha Hi/Lo situations, or even 7 Stud or Royal.

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50/100 NL Hold’em

9 players

Standard Replay low stake line up. Lots of pre flop limping. Nobody has been getting wild.
Small blind joined the table about 1 orbit ago with full stack and has not been involved in any hands prior to this

SB has similar 2 million chip Bank and lifespan as Hero
UTG 12,400 Call 100
UTG+1 42,800 Call 100
UTG+2 23,400 Fold
Mid pos 12,400 Call 100
Late pos 8,700 Call 100
Cut off: 19,200 Fold
Button (Hero) 21,500 Qh Jh Call 100
SB 20,000 raise to 600
BB 13,800 Fold
UTG Call 500
UTG+1 Call 500
Mid pos Fold
Late pos Call 500
Hero Call 500

Pot:2,945

Flop: 10h Kh 2s

SB Bet 2,300
UTG Call 2,300
UTG+1 Call 2,300
Late pos Call 2,300
Hero Call 2,300

Pot 14:100

Turn 6s

SB Bet 11,300
UTG Fold
UTG+1 Fold
Late pos Fold
Hero Call 11,300

Pot: 36,700

River Qs

SB: (5,800) Check
Hero (7,300) ??

Comments on all streets welcome.

My line of thinking:

Pre flop: With QJ suited on the button I am taking a flop almost always, for up to about 10% of my stack.
I might even raise myself if I am deep and the table is passive
Flop: SB bets out and 3 calls. I have huge equity. If I raise I feel the SB will usually call and probably the late pos player with ~6,000
Turn Miss my draws. SB bets again and all fold to me. I think it is a call. Is shoving bad? I suspect we always get called by any hand.
River: SB checks. Bit of a surprise they slowed down and we have something which might win a showdown.
We both have less than 1/5 pot. If I shove, will I get a bunch of calls from worse, or am I only getting called by better?

All-in on the flop, final answer.

There’s already ~12K in the pot, you easily have the odds to play for the rest here, and that’s the only way of having any fold equity at all. You’re only in trouble if the SB has AK+ and one of the large stacks is holding Ax of hearts, but even then you’d nearly be getting the right price considering you’d be playing for a roughly 70K pot. Factor in the you will likely also get called by worse flush draws and that you’re not folding to the turn barrel anyway and it becomes a trivial all-in.

As played, I can’t think of a worse hand that calls on the river.

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I think if you jammed the flop or turn, you would get at least one call. They seemed pot committed (loose cannon?). No bluffing, here. You had equity on the flop but did not improve. Villains were sticky. If I saw the river in that spot, I’d probably check for showdown value or lay 'em down instead of punting. Then try to get some reads on the villains, take some notes.

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The turn is an interesting spot as played. We’re certainly not getting the right odds to continue, and there isn’t enough behind for implied odds to be a thing. Might just be a remorseful fold.

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  1. Limping is OK at some frequency I guess, I mean I do it too in these spots because ew, variance. But really this should be a raise at a very high frequency, I imagine. Plenty of dead money, weak ranges, and we have position with a hand that plays well postflop if we get called.

  2. SB iso raise was too small; I would consider 3-betting here. We want to thin the field and there is now even more dead money to vie for. If SB continues we have position the rest of the way. I also don’t put SB on the hands that dominate us too often (KQ/AQ/JJ+) given the action. I think they would shove a lot with those holdings. So 3! starts to sound increasingly appealing.

  3. Agree with @lihiue this is a slam-dunk shove on the flop. What more do we want? This is top of range without having a made hand. If we are not shoving here at a reasonable frequency then we are very unbalanced and exploitable (villains can simply fold whenever we jam flop).

  4. Check back river and probably lose. Villain seems scared of the flush, but otherwise there’s not much reason to put them on less than a good K. Turn bet is suicidal with a hand like AT. We have no FEQ against better and although “pot stuck,” some worse hands can still find a fold. Betting seems more likely to end badly than to end well.

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@lihiue @PaperBoy73 @Younguru

Thanks for the responses.

I definitely dont raise enough with similar suited broadway connectors hands from the button. I think limping is ok for most people, but for the reasons stated entering the post with a raise increases expected return / profit.

On reflection, the flop is certainly a shove. We are closing the action. If all the hands are laid on their backs, we are almost always best.

I thought the turn call was standard, but there is a case that pot odds don’t warrant a call. This opponent is 100% beating us. Although we have an attractive draw, 15 outs with no way to cash in when we do connect looks marginal.

River really doesnt change much and I am glad to showdown for free.

Rob

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The % of hands we should limp from the button is approximately 0 :money_mouth_face: :kissing_heart:

Seriously, unless the blinds are huge relative to stacks, I do not think I have a button limping range. Nor would I recommend most players have one. We have the best position and are only up against the blinds; if we want to play, we should raise and try to take down the blinds “for free.” When we get called we will realize our EQ more often than the blinds due to our positional advantage and perceived range advantage.

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