Perhaps this conversation is being gone about the wrong way. The math has been laid out in simple easy to understand terms and still the point doesn’t seem to get across. ( I have learned things from this conversation)
I have been here for a while and played over 131k hands. As any of you who have been here for a while have also seen unlikely events do occur. I have literally got the exact same two hole cards 3 times in a row. What would the odds of that be? I have had pocket aces followed by pocket kings followed by pocket aces. I have been on coolers where I can’t seem to do anything right, heaters where I can seem to do no wrong. All unlikely events that happen. By simply looking at how cards fall over a few sessions or not taking into account how the other players at the table change the odds one could easily get the wrong idea. Having played as many hands as I have here I believe that replay does a good job of randomizing the fall of the cards.
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indeed!
probability is confusing and humans have remarkably poor intuition about either very large or very small quantities. we are especially bad at weighing the relative magnitudes of such quantities.