Had your bullets cracked THREE TIMES and still won. Stick to your guns. Never say die. ; )
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Only twice in that tournament. One of the other beats was in an earlier tournament, I think the one I went out on the bubble, but don’t quote me. The map shows everything for the day until the one I won was down to three players. I think in the future I’m only going to track five-handed or more. It becomes difficult to keep up.
I just got sucked out 3 times at the endgame and felted 10th, including back-to-back on the last 2 hands (and I had him dead to rights both times). Twice to straights on the river and twice to runner-runner. I lost 6 or 7 all-ins total, all but 2 I was ahead, and the 2 that I was behind the short stack jammed heads-up from the SB to me on BB. Absolutely brutal.
You feel like you offended someone but don’t know how.
I implemented the idea in the second paragraph of my previous comment. After a day and a half there’s an interesting trend:
Opponents suck out on me 34% of the time. I suck out on them 7%. Bit of an inequity.
So are you saying that you get sucked out 34% of the time that you are ahead and you only suckout 7% of the times that you are behind?
Or are you saying that of all the times that you are all-in whether ahead or behind you take far ore suckouts than you give?
Those are one and the same, except not necessarily all in, just that the hand was showed down. Right now, it stands at opponents sucking out 28% of the time (yesterday and today), and me having the buttluck 10% of the time. The latter wouldn’t have increased if the opponent knew how to 3-bet their AQ pre and not let me flop aces and sixes.
I don’t see them as one and the same. The reason that I ask these questions is because if you are ahead you cannot suck out. Only the player behind can suck out, so you want to make sure that you are not misinterpreting the numbers just because you are playing tighter and have a range advantage so that you are more often ahead.
The percentage of times that you suck out when you are behind needs to be compared to the percentage of times that you get sucked out when you are ahead, not just lump all hands into it. So you have to clarify your hand filtering for how you came up with your calculations.
We can’t tell how accurate your conclusions are unless we understand exactly how you calculated it. That is all that I’m saying.
You gave the option of being ahead or behind for both situations, the only difference being whether or not I was all-in. To be clear, I’m saying that if the hand is decided by showdown, whether or not anyone is all in, I was getting run down more often than I was coming from behind during that spell.
I understand that if I am playing well enough to get my chips in with the best hand, which I did 52 times v 34 when I was behind, I won’t suck out as often as my opponents. I also understand that the 34 includes several hands (a rough guess being 6-10) that everyone checked down to the river, not giving me the opportunity to fold when I was checking in the big blind, calling a half-min blind from the small, or maybe limping with a tiny suited connector on the button. Another four, the last hands of each tournament I played, were a result of being forced to shove with a more vulnerable holding or be blinded out.
After having time to think about it, though, I’ve realized that I have to make best guesses about having the best hand when people muck rather than show. My system has been to consider my hand best if I hit the flop, we go to the river, and I win, or worst if we check down without betting and I catch a card on the turn or river to win.
Now, as I’m learning more about spreadsheet functions, I’m considering switching to a tracking system using filters that enable me to determine my rate of checking, betting, raising, 3-betting, or calling at each phase, along with the number of bb won or lost. I’m not sure the time is there to manage it while playing, however.
Quick update.
After six sessions and 2,266 hands dealt with the updated tracking, I know the following about my play.
- I fold around 62% of the hands I’m dealt.
- Nearly 10% of the hands I play are A^, and a little over five K^.
- Slightly less than a third of my unpaired hands are suited.
- Nearly one in six hands with which I see a flop or take it down pre are pocket pairs.
- I am 50% on showdowns, with the previous imbalance in suckouts (mine v theirs) regressing toward the norm. I am now being victimized 35% of the time with the best hand and doing others wrong 28% of the time.
- I think that one seeming abnormality, the statistically anticipated 3-1 ratio of unsuited Broadway hands to suited when compared to the above-mentioned 2-1 overall ratio of unsuited v suited, is actually a sign that I’m not playing too many garbage hands.
- That said, I do seem to have a disproportionate affinity for 46, 57, and 58.
- Finally, while there is no unsuited hand I haven’t played at least once after more than 2000 hands, I have still resisted (or missed out on) at least one hand from K^ to 3^ except for having played both a suited 4-3 and 4-2.
Yes, it’s still a small sample size, but it’s sufficient to give me some idea of how I’m playing.
Nice!
One thing I forgot to mention last time when you asked if your hand tracking was too complicated - you could try just tracking your Aggression Factor (rather than folds generated, hands won per street etc). It’s just a ratio of how often you take the aggressive action (betting or raising) over calling. You could track that per street if you wanted, but overall is probably best.
The good thing about Aggression Factor is that it’s not results dependent, so it shouldn’t vary too much regardless of how you are running, and therefore can be useful even over a fairly small sample size. (You can track it for your opponents too if you really want)
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