Aggression Wins (until it doesn't)

Replay Poker Hand Review
1

The Hand

Context: I freakin’ hate this MTT structure. 2500 starting chips means we can very easily find ourselves pot committed in even just a single-raised pot.

I don’t have any notes on villain here, so I just defaulted to “limping the SB when folded to is about as weak as it gets.” Accordingly, I took a really aggressive line. I think raising 80% of hands here is probably not too terrible as an exploit, so 6 5 offsuit it is.

On the flop I am semi-bluffing. Imagine my surprise when I get called by a worse hand. I made a note never to tip this particular dealer again.

Anyway, was this psycho? Am I doing my best Phil Laak impression, and if so, is it the good Laak who guys like Hellmuth wake up in cold sweats about, or the bad Laak who loses 5 buy-ins in an hour?

I figure Villain has plenty of hands that hate this flop and have trouble continuing. A lot of weak limps are subpremium broadways, right? QJo, stuff like that. My stack depth makes it difficult to find a good size for a double or triple-barrel, and there are plenty of turn cards that will favor SB over me, or make continuing to bluff an increasingly suicidal prospect. We have some equity when behind, can credibly represent all the two pairs as well as the straight, but also don’t have a hand strong enough to call down many runouts. So I just said eff it and put it in on the flop with my crappy pair and gutshot.

2

If this was bad then I blame @lihiue because I always feel extra creative after our little strategy talks!

3

Always assume the worst. Stack wise I agree with you but bluffing in this case is quite a big risk. I just won the tournament not because I bluff a lot, but because I waited until someone moves in. If you have a good hand, you have to risk soon or later. It is better when you have good hand. My strong point is J T suited. If and only if they raise, it means they must have some hands including K or Q or even A. After this assumption, I can safely see the flop and move in. J T is connected suit, so you will have more equity when they don’t hit the flop. Other than that, maybe you should refer to GTO chart. I do feel you when 2000 out of 3000 chips are spent on firsrt hand, it is not something you will feel good about. So…play smart, not play hard. Relax and enjoy the game and surely you will have your revenge.

1 Like
4

Thanks for chiming in! I think your analysis makes some good points, but is ultimately too simple to be very useful.

I got Villain to put his whole stack in with no pair on the flop, when I had a pair + draw. I think that’s great :smiley:

But I did just notice I think I copied the link wrong. Let me see if I can fix that!

5

Here’s the proper link:

Oops, My Bad

6

Telling a believable story, and good image, combined with bluffing the right tight passive players equals bluffing success. Also key is betting halfpot to pot depending on size of pot. A good bluff amount isnt too small or too big. You bluff that way because it puts sufficient pressure on pot, and at same time looks like its not too big, that your ok with a call, which can make your bluff more believable, and if bluff doesnt work, then you dont lose as much.

Also shouldnt bluff too much. 9% to 17% to 26% bluffing percentage. If bluff more then that, or in bad spots, that probably be bad for your stack, unless your up against the ultimate NIT, passive, way the heck overfolder.

In the 1.2 Mil GTD that finished 2nd in, I bluffed about 13 to 15 to 17 times by end of tournament.

About 1/3 were cbet, delayed Cbet bluffs. 1/2 of those were absolute nothing cbets. The other half were semi bluff cbets. Another 1/3 were bluffs where bluffed turn, after checking with either nothing or semi bluff. The other 1/3 were river bluffs. Also about 27% of bluffs were double, tripple barrel bluffs.

Only about about 2,3,4,5 bluffs didnt work. And only 1, lost a semi lot, the other few times that got caught I didnt lose much.

And about 2 of the busted bluffs later led to getting paid off big when had goods.

And I was able to do that because I was semi tight, had good image, told a believable story, picked good spots, only bluffed those that were either tight passive or limp happy passive.

There was about 6 to 12 times where I 3,4,5,6 x bb raised pounded the blinds with wide range if I was in position, against the right players, and aabout73% of those folded everybody out, so I was able to pick up a lot of blinds, antes, limps doing that.

The rest of time I waited patiently for the right range of hands in the right position, situation to raise, limp, call, play.

So shouldnt be to bluff happy, but cant afford to wait forever for the perfect hands, and let card deadness blind you down and out either.

Need to be balanced, mix up game, be semi tight to semi moderate careful to semi careful semi aggressive.

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Good general thoughts on bluffing. What do you think of (over)playing this particular spot as a semi-bluff?

My reason for using all-in sizing was twofold:

  1. I’d use the same size with my nutted hands (2pair, set, straight) on this board as SPR is already not so high, and there are so many draws available.
  2. I put Villain on a lot of unpaired overs, and with little clarity about exactly what Villain’s range/holding is here, I’m happy to just take the pot now.
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I like it, for the reasons you state. You can also be up against low pocket pairs that might not fold but are drawing nearly dead.

With how quickly your opponent acted at every point, I wouldn’t really bother analyzing the shove beyond that. They’re clearly not considering what story you are telling, pot odds are anything like that. They’ve just decided that AKo is a good hand, so they’re calling.

I do think it is interesting to consider what happens if you don’t shove. You still might end up losing a decent sized pot, and in a PKO, having a decent chance of picking up a bounty has to be worth a lot more than not losing quite as many chips. I just don’t see how shove isn’t the best option.

1 Like
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I didn’t even think of the small pps, that’s a good point. Now I like the shove even more :slight_smile: